Global platinum production is expected to decline by 5% in 2025 to 5.5 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). South Africa, the world’s largest producer, is projected to see a 6% drop in output to 3.9 million ounces. North American production is set to decrease by 15% to 216,000 ounces, while other nations will maintain their combined production at 191,000 ounces. Zimbabwe is expected to maintain its 2024 production levels at 514,000 ounces, while Russian figures remain undisclosed.
Recycling will contribute nearly 1.5 million ounces to the global platinum supply in 2025, up 1% from the previous year. The majority of this supply will come from recycled automotive catalysts, which are expected to yield 1.13 million ounces. As a result, total platinum availability is forecasted to be just over 7 million ounces, marking a 4% year-over-year decline.
Demand for platinum is projected to decrease by 5% to 7.85 million ounces due to economic instability and trade tensions. Automotive consumption will fall by 1% to 3.1 million ounces, driven by a shrinking diesel vehicle market in Europe and reduced truck production in North America. Industrial demand will drop by 14% to 2.15 million ounces, with the most significant declines in the glass (-58%) and chemical (-5%) sectors, largely due to slower capacity expansion in China. Conversely, platinum demand in the oil industry is expected to rise 30% to 205,000 ounces, reaching a five-year high.
Jewelry sector demand is set to increase by 2% to 2 million ounces, the first rise since 2019, supported by increased platinum jewelry production in China (+5%), India (+7%), and North America (+2%). Investment demand, however, is forecast to decline by 14% to 606,000 ounces, as investor interest in platinum coins and bars wanes, particularly in Japan. Still, platinum-backed investment funds could see a 60% increase in holdings due to the metal’s price differential with gold.
WPIC has revised its platinum deficit forecast upward, now expecting a shortfall of 848,000 ounces in 2025, a 36% increase from previous estimates. The primary cause is a slowdown in recycling. Following significant deficits in 2023-2024, global platinum stockpiles are expected to fall to 2.5 million ounces, covering less than four months of consumption.
Magna Mining has completed its acquisition of a portfolio of Canadian copper assets from Poland’s KGHM International in a deal worth approximately $3.7 million in cash, 1.2 million common shares valued at $1.4 million, and an additional deferred payment of $1.4 million due by the end of 2026. The agreement also includes interim payments totaling $16.6 million.
As part of the deal, Magna Mining acquired Project Nikolas, which includes the Falconbridge Footwall, Northwest Foy, North Range, and Rand exploration projects. Additionally, the company gained ownership of the operating McCreedy West copper mine and the idled Levack, Podolsky, and Kirkwood operations, which previously produced copper, nickel, and precious metals.
KGHM International is a subsidiary of Poland’s KGHM Group, which also owns KGHM Polska Miedz. This year, KGHM Polska Miedz expects to produce 392,300 tonnes of copper concentrate and 567,100 tonnes of copper cathodes, with 375,400 tonnes sourced from its own materials. Copper sales are projected to total 572,900 tonnes. KGHM International is expected to contribute 52,100 tonnes, while Sierra Gorda, 55% owned by KGHM International, is forecast to produce 87,200 tonnes.
Lithium Americas will receive a $250 million investment from Orion Resource Partners to fund the first phase of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada. The investment includes a $195 million purchase of senior unsecured convertible notes, an option for an additional $30 million, and a $25 million production payment agreement.
Orion Resource Partners may also provide up to $500 million in additional financing for the second phase of Thacker Pass. Previously, Lithium Americas formed a joint venture with General Motors in December 2024, with GM contributing $625 million for a 38% stake. The agreement included $430 million in direct funding for Phase I and a $195 million letter of credit. The two companies will also provide an additional $181 million and $100 million, respectively, upon final investment approval.
Lithium Americas is also in talks with the U.S. Department of Energy for a $2.26 billion loan, expected to be finalized by mid-2025.
Thacker Pass, located within the extinct McDermitt Caldera supervolcano, contains high-grade lithium deposits. The project, to be completed in five phases, includes an open-pit mine and a hydrometallurgical plant with a planned capacity of up to 160,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually.
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has proposed a tax hike on nickel ore extraction, shifting from a flat 10% rate to a variable rate between 14-19%, depending on government-set base metal prices. Smelted nickel would also face increased taxation.
In addition to nickel, the new tax measures would impact copper, tin, and gold mining, with revenues intended to offset government spending on social initiatives introduced by President Prabowo Subianto, such as free school lunches.
These proposals come at a difficult time, as nickel prices remain low. Indonesian producers are already considering output reductions, and additional tax burdens could lead to significant production cuts. However, a decline in Indonesian nickel supply could support global price recovery after years of oversupply.
China’s MMG has suspended operations at its cobalt smelter near the Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), citing unfavorable market conditions. Cobalt prices, which had declined due to oversupply and weakening demand from the electric vehicle sector, have now rebounded sharply.
The Kinsevere cobalt plant, part of a $600 million expansion project, began operations in September 2023 and produced 1,600 tonnes of cobalt in 2024. However, in February 2025, the DRC government imposed a four-month cobalt export ban, prompting Eurasian Resources Group to declare force majeure at its Metakol plant, which produced 19,200 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide last year.
CMOC Group, another major cobalt producer, had planned to increase output to 120,000 tonnes in 2025 but may now face disruptions. The situation in the DRC, coupled with potential production cuts in Indonesia due to low prices, could tighten global supply and further boost prices.
Hedge funds, including Anchorage Capital Advisors and Squarepoint Capital, have reportedly been accumulating cobalt stocks, betting on long-term price increases. As a result, cobalt prices have surged from $21,550 per tonne in late March to over $33,500 per tonne, with forecasts suggesting further gains up to $35,000 in the coming weeks.
Weekly Metals News Digest – March 3-7The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to assess the national security implications of copper imports, following a directive from President Donald Trump. The investigation aims to determine whether protective measures are necessary for the American copper industry.
Currently, the U.S. produces 850,000 tonnes of refined copper annually, of which only 40,000 tonnes come from ore, with the rest derived from scrap and waste. Meanwhile, copper imports have surpassed 800,000 tonnes, growing steadily over the years. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, refined copper imports reached 676,000 tonnes in 2020 and are projected to rise to 810,000 tonnes in 2024.
While U.S. copper consumption has slightly declined from 1.68 million tonnes in 2020 to an estimated 1.6 million tonnes in 2024, the country remains heavily reliant on imported copper, primarily from Chile, Mexico, Canada, and Peru.
Domestic copper production is limited due to factors such as depleted reserves, high electricity costs, and opposition from indigenous communities and environmental groups. No new copper mines or processing facilities have been built in the U.S. in the past decade, further entrenching import dependence.
South African mining company Impala Platinum is evaluating options for its Impala Canada mine, including an early closure, due to persistently low palladium prices. The mine, formerly known as North American Palladium, was acquired in 2019 for approximately $1 billion and has an annual production capacity exceeding 200,000 troy ounces of palladium.
Global palladium prices have declined significantly, falling from a peak of $3,440 per troy ounce in March 2022 to around $921 per troy ounce in 2025. As a result, Impala Canada’s production in the first half of fiscal 2025 is expected to reach 116,000 tonnes, while Impala Platinum’s profits have dropped by 43% to $100.23 million.
Other palladium producers, including Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo American Platinum, and Northam Platinum, are facing similar challenges due to weak market demand. Despite the downturn, Impala Platinum CEO Nico Muller remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting that palladium prices could rebound in the future due to potential shortages and the anticipated growth of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle production.
Rusal is set to commence scandium oxide production at the Bogoslovsky aluminium smelter by the end of 2025, with an initial capacity of 1.5 tonnes per year and a planned expansion to 19 tonnes per year.
The project, requiring an investment of $5.6 million, will extract scandium oxide from red mud, a byproduct of alumina production. The Bogoslovsky facility generates between 1.6 and 2.6 million tonnes of red mud annually, with scandium oxide recovery rates of up to 20% per tonne.
Rusal previously ventured into scandium production in 2014 at the Urals Aluminium Smelter but discontinued the project in 2020 due to declining demand amid the aviation sector’s slowdown during the pandemic.
The global scandium market is estimated at 40 tonnes per year, with major producers including China, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan. Prices have risen in recent years, with scandium costing $150–155 per gram in 2024, up from $130–135 in 2020. The price of aluminium-scandium alloys has also increased from $335–340 per kilogram in 2020 to $360–370 in 2024.
Scandium is primarily used in aluminium-scandium alloys for aerospace applications. Rusal’s renewed focus on scandium production is likely tied to the anticipated growth in aircraft manufacturing, as well as its expanding applications in electronics, medical technology, solar cells, and X-ray mirrors.
Hindustan Zinc has announced plans to increase its annual zinc output from 1.1 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes within five years. This expansion will be driven by increased automation, digitalization, and artificial intelligence integration across the production chain, from ore extraction to metal refining.
Since 2019, Hindustan Zinc has pursued an investment program to raise production capacity, with initial targets set at 1.5 million tonnes by 2024. The company has implemented remote telematics control systems for underground mining and has integrated robotics into the smelting process. Capital investment in these initiatives has reached approximately $1 billion per development phase.
India’s zinc consumption is currently around 1.5 million tonnes per year, largely supplied by Hindustan Zinc. Demand continues to grow, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors, where zinc-coated steel is widely used.
However, India’s reliance on imported galvanized steel products has led the government to impose protective tariffs. In 2022, anti-dumping duties were levied on hot- and cold-rolled electro-galvanized steel imports from Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, ranging from $16.05 to $79.73 per tonne, with a five-year validity period.
Rio Tinto has completed its $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, significantly strengthening its position in the global lithium market. The acquisition expands Rio Tinto’s lithium portfolio, which already includes the Rincon project in Argentina and the Jadar project in Serbia. Arcadium Lithium’s assets span Australia, Canada, the U.S., and Argentina.
Following the acquisition, Rio Tinto is projected to control 10% of global lithium supply by 2030, ranking among the leading lithium producers alongside Albemarle and SQM. The lithium market outlook remains positive, with demand expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Arcadium Lithium’s production capacity is projected to increase by 78% in the coming years. In February 2025, Rio Tinto commissioned Australian engineering firm Worley to manage the construction of a lithium production facility at the Rincon project. The $2.5 billion project includes $500 million in planned expenditures for 2025, with a targeted annual output of 60,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate.
Despite these developments, Rio Tinto’s Jadar project in Serbia remains uncertain due to environmental concerns and opposition from local communities. The Serbian government faces a balancing act between attracting foreign investment and addressing public resistance to lithium mining.
Weekly Metals News Digest – Feb 24-28US metals producer Novelis has conducted a series of tests utilizing hydrogen in a scrap aluminium remelting furnace at its Latchford facility in the UK. The trials demonstrated a 90% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions compared to natural gas use. The process required modifications, including the installation of a new refractory lining, burners, and regenerators.
The experiments involved blending hydrogen with natural gas in proportions ranging from 30% to 100% to evaluate combustion effects on the furnace, safety considerations, and emission levels. Several hundred tonnes of 3xxxx series aluminium alloy were remelted into flat ingots, determining optimal process parameters. These ingots are expected to be processed further at other Novelis plants to refine an “end-to-end” hydrogen-based recycling methodology.
The research is part of the UK government’s Industrial Fuel Switching Competition, a £1 billion initiative, with £4.6 million allocated for experiments at Latchford. Novelis’ project also aligns with HyNet’s regional decarbonization program, which has been promoting hydrogen applications and carbon capture since 2017.
Other industry leaders are exploring similar initiatives. Norsk Hydro, for instance, produced pilot cylindrical ingots using hydrogen fuel in June 2023. However, wider adoption faces challenges due to hydrogen’s flammability, as demonstrated by the February 2025 hydrogen leak at the Nedal plant in the Netherlands, which led to a full evacuation. Despite such risks, hydrogen trials in the aluminium sector are expected to continue.
Chilean state-owned Codelco and UK-based Anglo American have signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a joint venture aimed at increasing copper production at the Los Bronces and Andina mines. Together, the two mines contain an estimated 60 million tonnes of copper reserves.
The companies anticipate generating at least $5 billion in net present value over the agreement’s duration, with profits split equally. The joint entity will manage both companies’ processing facilities, optimizing operations where necessary.
The initiative aligns with Anglo American’s strategy to achieve 1 million tonnes of copper output by 2030. CEO Duncan Wanblad stated that the partnership could “unlock” 2.7 million tonnes of copper over 21 years from 2030 onward. For Codelco, the collaboration is expected to boost its annual net copper output by approximately 120,000 tonnes.
Finalization of the agreement depends on due diligence assessing the technical conditions of Los Bronces and Andina, regulatory approvals, and environmental permitting. Once these steps are completed, a definitive agreement will outline the governance and operational framework for the joint venture.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that the US invest in Russian rare earth and aluminium mining projects. According to the US Geological Survey, Russia currently produces 2,500 tonnes of rare earth elements annually, a fraction of the 390,000 tonnes mined worldwide—of which China accounts for 270,000 tonnes and the US for 45,000 tonnes.
Despite significant Russian rare earth reserves, only one deposit—Lovozerskoye in Murmansk—is actively developed. Other major reserves, such as Tomtorskoye in Yakutia, remain untapped due to logistical and infrastructure constraints, including extreme climate conditions, lack of transportation, and complex ore compositions requiring costly processing.
American firms could be granted access to unallocated deposits or invited to join the Tomtor development project. For the US, such participation could reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth exports, which are subject to shifting trade policies.
Regarding aluminium, Russia has proposed two development options. One involves bauxite extraction in the Krasnoyarsk region, where the Chadobetskaya group holds 50 million tonnes of reserves. The second proposal involves an integrated energy-metallurgical complex, including bauxite mining, alumina and aluminium refining, and a hydroelectric power facility.
Rusal, Russia’s primary aluminium producer, has implemented similar projects, such as the Boguchansk Energy and Metallurgical Association, which combines an aluminium smelter and hydroelectric power station. The US market is a strategic opportunity for Rusal, given that domestic US primary aluminium production stands at 670,000 tonnes per year while imports total 4.8 million tonnes, including primary and semi-finished products.
South African miner Sibanye-Stillwater has decided to withdraw from the Rhyolite Ridge lithium and boron project in Nevada, which it had been developing in partnership with Australia’s Ioneer.
Rhyolite Ridge is one of the world’s only two known commercial deposits containing high-purity lithium and boron. The site holds 60 million tonnes of reserves, primarily composed of the rare mineral sierlesite, with inferred resources of 146.4 million tonnes.
Ioneer completed a feasibility study in August 2020, outlining plans to produce over 20,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium and 170,000 tonnes of borates annually. Over its projected 26-year lifespan, the project was expected to provide lithium for more than 50 million electric vehicle batteries.
A year later, Ioneer and Sibanye-Stillwater formed a joint venture, with Sibanye-Stillwater’s participation contingent on a final investment decision. In October 2024, Ioneer submitted detailed technical documentation for review. However, following an evaluation by external consultants, Sibanye-Stillwater’s board opted to withdraw from the project.
The decision appears linked to low global lithium prices, which remain volatile and below sustainable growth levels. This market downturn has forced some lithium producers to operate at reduced margins or incur losses. For example, Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, reported a net profit of just $75 million in Q4 2024.
Global zinc ore production is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2024 to approximately 11.9 million tonnes (net metal basis), largely due to reduced output in Canada, China, South Africa, Peru, Ireland, and Portugal. Factors include mine overhauls, declining ore grades, and temporary plant closures. However, production increased in Bolivia, Mexico, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Ivanhoe Mines restarted the Kipushi mine in July 2024 after a 31-year hiatus.
Reduced zinc ore availability has constrained global concentrate supply, limiting refined zinc output at smelters in Norway, the Netherlands, South Korea, China, and Japan. Some losses were offset by production increases in France, Germany, and India, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.
The most significant decline was in China, where zinc production dropped 3.4% to 6.6 million tonnes in 2024, accounting for 49% of global supply. Overall, refined zinc output fell 2.6% to 13.5 million tonnes worldwide.
Global zinc consumption edged up by just 0.1% to 13.6 million tonnes. Demand grew in Mexico, Turkey, Vietnam, Brazil, India, and South Korea but weakened in China, the US, and the EU due to stagnation in the construction sector, where zinc-coated steel is widely used.
Despite weak demand, global zinc stocks declined slightly by 31,000 tonnes to 791,000 tonnes in 2024. The average zinc price on the London Metal Exchange rose 5% to $2,779 per tonne. In 2025, moderate consumption growth is anticipated, though economic challenges in major economies may continue to weigh on demand.
Weekly Metals News Digest – Feb 17-21Global aluminium prices are displaying volatility and may soon face downward pressure as China ramps up production following the extended Chinese New Year celebrations. The resumption of business activity is expected to boost aluminium output, adding to an already well-supplied market.
Additional pressure on aluminium prices comes from growing stockpiles of Russian metal in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. In December 2024, Russian aluminium accounted for 56% of total LME stocks, increasing to 67% in January 2025. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories from India have declined.
Japan, one of the world’s largest aluminium importers, also saw a significant stock build-up. By December 2024, aluminium reserves in Japanese ports had risen 13.2% from the previous month to 323,600 tonnes.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production reached 6.236 million tonnes in December 2024, reflecting a 3% increase from the same period in 2023. Chinese aluminium exports surged 17% in the first ten months of 2024, reaching 5.5 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, discussions within the European Union over potential sanctions against Russian aluminium continue. Since 2022, European buyers have gradually reduced their imports of Russian semi-finished aluminium products. The situation intensified in April 2024 when LME imposed a ban on storing Russian non-ferrous metals in its warehouses. If new sanctions materialize, Russia may redirect exports to Asian markets, particularly China. However, with an already saturated market, Russia might struggle to place all of its excess metal. India and South Korea may absorb some of the supply, but demand in Africa remains weak, and shipping to South America is expensive.
Should an embargo on Russian aluminium be imposed, global prices may briefly spike before settling lower, potentially affecting the profitability of aluminium producers in Asia, Europe, and North America.
Korea Zinc, one of the world’s leading zinc producers, is aiming to expand its influence in critical minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The company’s move comes amid China’s tightening control over exports of these materials, sparking concerns over potential disruptions in global supply chains. The United States, which heavily relies on imports of these metals, has expressed particular alarm over the situation.
Indium is of strategic importance, being a key component in the production of solar cells, liquid crystal displays, 5G optical communication systems, and lasers. Korea Zinc currently produces approximately 150 tonnes of indium per year, extracting it from zinc concentrates and secondary raw materials.
In 2023, global indium production and demand stood at roughly 1,400 tonnes, with China accounting for half of the total supply. Even before the latest export restrictions, fluctuations in Chinese indium supply caused market instability. In 2024, the average price for indium stood at $317 per kilogram.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, South Korea supplied around 30% of U.S. indium imports between 2020 and 2023. With China now controlling indium exports, South Korea is expected to increase its supply to the U.S. market. Meanwhile, industry experts predict that demand for indium in the semiconductor sector will rise as artificial intelligence technology advances. Sales of indium phosphide, a key indium-based compound used in electronics, surged 67% in Q2 2024 compared to the previous year, underscoring the metal’s growing importance.
Anglo American has reached an agreement to sell its nickel business to MMG Singapore Resources for $500 million. The deal includes the Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné nickel development projects, along with the Barro Alto and Codemin ferronickel smelters, all located in Brazil.
The assets vary significantly in scale: Jacaré contains 300 million tonnes of nickel ore reserves, while Morro Sem Boné has inferred resources of 65 million tonnes. The Barro Alto and Codemin smelters produced a combined 39,400 tonnes of ferronickel in 2024.
The sale aligns with Anglo American’s strategy to streamline its portfolio. The company plans to divest not only its nickel and coal businesses but also De Beers, the world’s largest diamond mining company. Instead, Anglo American will focus on iron ore, copper, and agricultural fertilisers.
With the nickel and coal sales combined, Anglo American expects to generate up to $5.3 billion in proceeds, according to CEO Duncan Wanblad.
MMG Singapore Resources is a subsidiary of China’s MMG, which is active in base metals trading and exploration projects in Africa, Australia, and Latin America. The acquisition is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close in Q3 2025.
The deal follows prolonged weakness in global nickel prices, which have deterred investment. According to the Brazilian mining association Ibram, mining companies in Brazil plan to invest $3.8 billion in projects between 2025 and 2029, down from the previously projected $4.4 billion for 2024-2028.
Global attention remains fixed on Ukraine amid reports of possible ceasefire negotiations with Russia. At the same time, discussions over a potential agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding rare earth metal supplies have sparked intrigue.
Ukraine holds deposits of 23 out of 50 minerals classified as critical by the U.S. government and 26 out of 34 recognized by the European Union. These include titanium, lithium, beryllium, and rare earth elements.
Titanium and beryllium are essential for aerospace and industrial applications, with Ukraine ranking among the world’s top five in titanium reserves. However, its production of titanium sponge and alloys has been dormant. While Ukraine’s lithium reserves are modest on a global scale, they are substantial within Europe. Rare earth deposits in Ukraine remain relatively unexplored.
The U.S. is seeking access to Ukraine’s rare earth reserves in exchange for continued aid, which has already amounted to $350 billion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated willingness to negotiate but insists on U.S. security guarantees in return. He recently blocked an initial agreement draft, calling for a more detailed plan on what Ukraine would receive in exchange.
Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that he wants a return on U.S. aid to Ukraine, ensuring that the U.S. does not “feel stupid.” However, uncertainties remain regarding the actual size and feasibility of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, raising doubts about potential investment from the U.S. or other nations.
Indonesia plans to launch an electric vehicle battery recycling plant by 2031, with Indonesia Battery Corporation leading the project. This initiative aligns with the country’s broader policy of increasing domestic mineral processing.
Indonesia’s government has long sought to establish itself as a major player in the battery industry. Four years ago, Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that Indonesia aimed to become the world’s leading battery producer, emphasizing that the country should be known not only for tourism but also for industrial advancements.
In 2024, Indonesia considered curbing nickel ore production to support prices amid oversupply. Nickel prices have plummeted by 40% over the past two years due to excessive supply from Indonesia and slowing global EV sales. The resulting price crash has forced some nickel mines outside Indonesia to shut down, eroding profits for domestic producers.
Indonesia’s 2024 nickel ore production quota stood at 270 million tonnes, but in 2025 it may be reduced to 150–200 million tonnes. Since banning nickel ore exports in 2020, Indonesia has attracted substantial foreign investment, primarily from Chinese firms. The country produced 2.02 million tonnes of refined nickel in 2024, accounting for 57% of global output. In 2025, its share is expected to rise to 62%, solidifying Indonesia’s dominance in the nickel market.
Weekly Metals News Digest – Feb-10-14The United States is set to impose a 25% tariff on aluminium imports, affecting shipments from all countries. However, the exact implementation date and additional details have yet to be disclosed by US authorities.
During his first term, former President Donald Trump had already introduced a 10% tariff on aluminium imports, initially exempting Canada and Mexico. These exemptions were later removed, but in 2019, the three countries agreed to eliminate the tariffs. Under President Joe Biden, the US and the European Union reached an agreement in 2021, allowing limited duty-free aluminium imports from Europe. In 2023, the US imposed a 200% tariff on Russian aluminium, followed by a 10% tariff in 2024 on aluminium not produced in Mexico.
The US faces a significant primary aluminium deficit, producing only 750,000 tonnes of primary aluminium and 3.3 million tonnes of secondary aluminium annually while importing nearly 5 million tonnes of semi-finished aluminium products. The new tariffs aim to stimulate domestic production and processing but could also lead to excess supply in the global market. Aluminium producers may redirect exports originally intended for the US to other regions, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances.
Meanwhile, US aluminium consumers may face challenges. Alcoa, which operates plants in both the US and Canada, warned in January that a 25% tariff on Canadian aluminium would significantly impact US consumption. The company estimated that the policy could cost American consumers $1.5–2 billion, potentially dampening demand and disrupting the stability of the aluminium supply chain.
The legal dispute between international commodities trader Trafigura and Indian businessman Pratik Gupta has reached a new phase.
Since 2015, Trafigura had partnered with Gupta for nickel shipments, purchasing nickel already loaded onto ships and reselling it upon arrival. However, in December 2022, Trafigura representatives inspecting containers at the port of Rotterdam found that they contained ordinary steel instead of nickel.
In response, Trafigura launched legal action in the UK in 2023 against Gupta and affiliated companies, including TMT Metals, UIL (Singapore), and Vadox. The company estimates its losses at nearly $600 million. Gupta denies all allegations, arguing that Trafigura either orchestrated the fraud or was complicit in it.
In January 2025, Trafigura petitioned a New York court for access to bank records related to transactions by companies and individuals linked to Gupta. Judge Paul Oetken granted the request, allowing subpoenas to be issued to banks such as Bank of China, Barclays, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, and UBS. These banks are not involved in the case, and the subpoenas were issued without a hearing.
Trafigura aims to trace financial flows associated with Gupta and his wife, Jeannie, hoping to strengthen its chances of recovering losses if successful.
Ivanhoe Mines and Pallas Resources have established a joint venture to explore Kazakhstan’s Chu-Sarysu copper basin.
The agreement covers up to 16,000 square kilometers, leveraging geological data collected during the Soviet era. Ivanhoe Mines has committed $18.7 million to exploration over two years and has already launched a tender to select a contractor for an aerogeophysical survey.
The Chu-Sarysu copper basin, located in southern Kazakhstan, consists of thick Upper Paleozoic sedimentary formations and is known for hosting large copper deposits such as Dzhezkazgan. Globally, the basin ranks third in size after the Central African Copper Belt and Europe’s Kupferschiefer, with an estimated 25 million tonnes of undeveloped copper reserves, along with lead, zinc, silver, and strontium.
Ivanhoe Mines plans to apply its experience from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where it has developed similar copper-bearing sedimentary formations.
The announcement follows Rio Tinto’s growing interest in Kazakhstan’s copper resources. In December 2023, Rio Tinto Exploration Kazakhstan secured two exploration licenses in the Ulytau region for approximately 196 million tenge. Despite investing in multiple Kazakh exploration projects since 2015, Rio Tinto has yet to discover commercially viable copper deposits.
Cobalt prices on the London Metal Exchange have fallen to $21,500 per tonne, their lowest level since 2010 when cobalt futures trading began.
The price decline reflects shifting market dynamics: while supply has surged, demand is weakening due to changes in electric vehicle battery technology. Western automakers have traditionally used nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries, but their production growth is slowing. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are increasingly adopting lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not require cobalt.
In 2023, electric vehicle sales rose by 36% in China but only 9% in North America, while the European Union saw a decline. This trend has reduced global demand for cobalt.
At the same time, cobalt supply is expanding, driven largely by China’s CMOC Group, which doubled its production in 2024, adding 60,000 tonnes to a global market with a total capacity of just over 200,000 tonnes. CMOC Group’s TFM and KFM mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo produced 114,165 tonnes of cobalt in 2023 and are expected to deliver 100,000–120,000 tonnes in 2024.
Cobalt is a byproduct of copper and nickel production, meaning that as Indonesia ramps up nickel output, its cobalt supply also increases. The growing reliance of Western countries on cobalt from Chinese producers remains a concern. Without alternative pricing mechanisms, the market may not recover soon. Macquarie Bank forecasts a global cobalt surplus lasting until at least 2028.
China’s copper rod production dropped 20% year-over-year in January to 716,000 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 51.99%.
The decline was primarily due to the Chinese New Year holiday, which halted business activity for two weeks. Rising global copper prices also played a role: copper prices on the London Metal Exchange climbed from $8,768 per tonne in early January to $8,928 per tonne by the month’s end, reducing orders from processors.
The production decline varied by region: in eastern China, output fell 9.16% to 478,900 tonnes, while in southern China, it dropped 16.76% to 106,300 tonnes.
By the end of February 2025, copper rod production is expected to recover to 737,700 tonnes, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 53.56%. However, new orders are likely to remain weak due to volatile copper prices, which affect both buyer demand and production profitability.
China remains the world’s top copper producer. In 2024, its copper cathode output increased by 5.4% to a record 12.1 million tonnes. The country is also the largest producer of copper rod, a key material in cable and wire manufacturing for the energy and industrial sectors.
Weekly Metals News Digest – Feb 3-7US President Donald Trump has expressed interest in securing access to Ukraine’s rare earth metals in return for ongoing American assistance. This proposal aligns with a broader strategy unveiled by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who presented a plan for joint development of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits to Trump and Republican lawmakers ahead of the US presidential election in October 2024.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources reported in 2022 that the country holds about 5% of the world’s reserves of critical raw materials, including rare earth elements such as scandium, yttrium, and lanthanum. However, the actual extent of these reserves remains a subject of debate, with some deposits now located in regions controlled by Russia following territorial changes.
The extraction of rare earths in Ukraine has historically been limited due to the complexity and high costs involved. Even before the onset of Russia’s special military operation, these challenges deterred both domestic and foreign investment in the sector. Given the current geopolitical landscape, it is unlikely that either Ukrainian or American companies will move forward with development projects in these regions.
A map compiled by the Dixi Group highlights the distribution of rare earth reserves across Ukraine, with some complex deposits in the western part of the country containing scandium. However, reserves have not been officially calculated, and other minerals such as lithium, beryllium, vanadium, strontium, tantalum, and niobium are also present, though not classified as rare earths. For many of these minerals, reserve estimates remain undefined.
Trump’s statements may reflect a broader foreign policy strategy, positioning himself as a strong leader capable of leveraging US support to extract concessions from Ukraine. His remarks also signal to Zelensky that American aid will come with strings attached, particularly access to valuable resources.
Rare earths are critical for US industries, from metallurgy to advanced instrumentation. The US produces between 40,000 and 43,000 tonnes of rare earths annually, compared to 240,000 tonnes in China, which dominates the global market with a total output of 350,000 tonnes. American production falls short of domestic needs, necessitating imports—primarily from China, despite escalating tensions between the two nations. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have sought ways to reduce this dependency on Chinese rare earths.
Even if a deal between the US and Ukraine materializes, it is unlikely to significantly impact the global rare earth market, where China’s dominance is expected to continue in the coming years.
Tanzania’s state-owned Tanzania Railways has signed contracts worth $2.15 billion with China Railway Engineering Group and China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group to construct the Uvinza-Musongati railway. This new rail line will facilitate the export of nickel ore from the Musongati deposit in Burundi.
The African Development Bank, which is financing the project, estimates that the Musongati deposit contains 180 million tonnes of laterite ore, ranking it among the world’s top ten nickel reserves due to its high metal content.
Discovered in 1972, the Musongati deposit underwent extensive geological exploration funded by the United Nations. In 2005, development rights were granted to Burundi Musongati Mining, a company jointly owned by the Burundian government (15%) and Burundi Mining Metallurgy International (85%). Plans included building a mine, concentrator, and metallurgical plant capable of processing 1 million tonnes of nickel annually, alongside three hydroelectric power plants to supply electricity. However, the project stalled, and the development license was revoked in 2022.
In 2023, the Burundian government sought a foreign investor to revive the project, ultimately securing Chinese investment. Once operational, the railway will transport up to 3 million tonnes of nickel ore annually to the port of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania for export to Chinese metallurgical plants.
Global zinc and lead markets are undergoing significant shifts, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. The global zinc deficit narrowed to 52,900 tonnes in November 2024, down from 65,400 tonnes in October. Over the first eleven months of 2024, the zinc market recorded a deficit of 33,000 tonnes, reversing a surplus of 312,000 tonnes during the same period in 2023.
The zinc shortage followed a sharp price drop in 2023, when prices fell to $2,355 per tonne in June, down from a peak of $4,422 per tonne in March 2022. The price slump led to mine shutdowns worldwide. However, prices have since rebounded to $2,750 per tonne, and several mines are expected to restart in 2025, potentially creating a surplus of 148,000 tonnes.
Conversely, the global lead market has shifted from a surplus to a deficit. A surplus of 8,900 tonnes in October 2024 turned into a deficit of 154,000 tonnes in November. Over the first eleven months of 2024, the lead market registered a modest surplus of just 1,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes in 2023, which had followed a deficit of 187,000 tonnes in 2022.
China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of both metals, plays a significant role in these market dynamics. In 2024, Chinese zinc production fell by 4% to 6.8 million tonnes, while lead production rose by 1% to 7.6 million tonnes. Reductions in vehicle production with internal combustion engines—common in China, the EU, and the US—have decreased demand for lead, while zinc demand has surged due to increased production of galvanized steel.
US engineering firm KBR has secured a contract from Weardale Lithium to build a demonstration plant for lithium extraction from underground brines in the UK. The contract includes the design, construction, and commissioning of the plant, as well as licensing for KBR’s PureLi® technology and Geolith’s patented Li-Capt® technology, which allows direct extraction of lithium chloride from brines.
The demonstration plant, to be built in County Durham, will produce up to 10,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually. The site has historical significance as a former coal mining region and home to the Blue Circle cement works. Boreholes drilled in 2004 and 2010 revealed hot groundwater with high lithium concentrations.
The UK currently has no active lithium mining operations, but the government is supporting initiatives like Weardale Lithium and Cornish Lithium, which aims to extract lithium from geothermal sources and minerals such as lepidolite and zinnwaldite. These projects represent the UK’s effort to join the global lithium supply chain, despite current low prices and market volatility.
Indonesia’s non-ferrous metals industry is facing uncertainty following US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw incentives for electric vehicle (EV) production in the US. This policy reversal, which suspended a mandate requiring 50% of new cars sold in the US to be electric by 2030, could reduce EV production, battery demand, and subsequently, nickel orders.
While US companies have limited investment in Indonesian laterite ore projects, the market is dominated by Chinese firms, with Tsingshan Holding Group and Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry controlling 75% of the country’s nickel production capacity.
Indonesia’s Ministry of Mines has announced plans to cut laterite ore mining quotas from 240 million tonnes in 2024 to 200 million tonnes in 2025. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association also supports limiting new mining permits to control production growth.
In 2024, Indonesia consumed 256 million tonnes of laterite ore, with 176 million tonnes used by nickel pig iron producers, 49 million tonnes for mixed nickel hydroxide in batteries, and 29 million tonnes for nickel matte production. A reduction in production quotas could significantly impact global nickel supply and prices.
Weekly Metals News Digest – Jan 27-31Century Aluminum has begun construction of a new primary aluminium smelter, marking the first such facility built in the US in 45 years. While the exact location has yet to be determined, the company is considering sites near the Ohio or Mississippi rivers. The project is expected to create 5,500 construction jobs and provide permanent employment for over 1,000 workers in electrolysis and related departments.
Century Aluminum secured a $500 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy last March as part of a federal initiative to strengthen domestic industry and reduce carbon emissions. Aluminium remains a critical metal for the US economy, used extensively in automotive manufacturing, food packaging, and other sectors.
Despite its importance, primary aluminium production in the US has been declining due to high electricity costs and fluctuating alumina prices. While the country produced 1 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2019, this fell to 750,000 tonnes in 2023. Meanwhile, secondary aluminium production has remained stable at 3 million tonnes per year. To meet demand, US companies import approximately 4.8 million tonnes of aluminium and aluminium-based products annually.
Alaska Energy Metals is advancing multiple projects across North America to develop deposits containing nickel, cobalt, lithium, and other critical metals for electric vehicles and renewable energy. The company’s flagship project, Nikolai, is currently undergoing exploration, with estimated reserves of 3.7 million tonnes of nickel, alongside significant deposits of cobalt, platinum, palladium, and copper.
In 2024, the company expanded the Eureka zone within the Nikolai deposit, identifying additional high-grade nickel reserves. It is also advancing the Angliers-Belleterre project in Canada, which has shown promising mineralization of nickel, cobalt, copper, and platinum group metals.
With global electric vehicle sales projected to surpass 20 million units in 2025, demand for nickel could double to over 1 million tonnes by 2030. The US remains heavily dependent on nickel imports, primarily from Indonesia and the Philippines, making domestic production increasingly important. The US government has been supporting projects for critical metals development, and Alaska Energy Metals may seek financial assistance in 2025-2026 to advance its Nikolai project.
Global cobalt prices have dropped to a decade-low of approximately $24,300 per tonne due to a surge in production. GlobalData estimates that cobalt output will exceed 300,000 tonnes in 2024, marking a 30% increase from 2023. The Democratic Republic of Congo continues to dominate the market, accounting for over 80% of global production, while Indonesia contributes 6.7%.
China’s CMOC Group, the world’s largest cobalt producer, achieved record output of 114,165 tonnes in 2024 and plans to maintain similar production levels through 2025. By 2030, global cobalt production is projected to reach 410,000 tonnes, with new projects emerging in Australia, Canada, and Indonesia. The DRC’s share of global production is expected to fall below 70%.
While cobalt demand surged between 2016 and 2023—driven largely by its use in batteries—it faces an uncertain future. Electric vehicle manufacturers are increasingly adopting lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not require cobalt. However, the metal remains essential for high-temperature alloys in aerospace and for alloying steel used in metal-cutting tools.
The European Commission is proposing a phased ban on Russian aluminium imports. The plan would allow European buyers to continue purchasing Russian aluminium under a quota system for one year, capped at 275,000 tonnes in 2025, before a full ban takes effect.
In the first 11 months of 2023, the EU imported approximately 320,000 tonnes of Russian aluminium, representing 6% of total aluminium imports (2.2 million tonnes). However, European consumers have gradually reduced their reliance on Russian aluminium, increasing purchases from the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
Rusal, Russia’s only primary aluminium producer, has already restructured its supply chains in response to previous restrictions, reducing the EU’s share of its sales from 31% in mid-2023 to 22% by the end of the year. The company is expected to further shift exports to China and other Asian markets, though competition in those regions remains high. If sanctions are imposed, Rusal may be forced to cut aluminium production by an additional 100,000 tonnes, on top of the 250,000-tonne reduction already announced for 2024.
A full embargo on Russian aluminium could drive global prices higher, especially as China imposes production limits that reduce export availability. However, Middle Eastern aluminium producers are expected to meet European demand.
Vale Base Metals, the nickel division of Brazilian mining giant Vale, has announced a strategic review of its Canadian Thompson mining and smelting complex. The company is evaluating options, including a potential sale, as part of a broader reassessment of its global portfolio.
The Thompson complex, located in Manitoba, includes two mines and a smelter, producing 10,500 tonnes of nickel between October 2023 and September 2024. While the region has substantial nickel reserves, developing new deposits will require significant capital investment.
Vale appears reluctant to commit to such investments, particularly given the current weak nickel market. Prices have declined due to rising production and exports from Indonesia, which is expected to remain a dominant supplier in 2025. Unlike Indonesia’s lateritic nickel deposits, Canadian nickel deposits are more complex and costly to process.
As a result, Vale may seek to divest other high-cost assets, particularly those in Canada, while focusing on more profitable operations in Indonesia and other regions.
Weekly Metals News Digest- Jan 20-24The global zinc market is poised for a surplus of 270,000 tonnes in 2025, following a deficit of 184,000 tonnes in 2024. This surplus is expected to exert downward pressure on zinc prices, which BMI forecasts will decline by 5.8% in 2025 to an average of $2,812 per tonne, compared to the 2024 average.
Global zinc production in 2024 fell by 0.7% to 13.8 million tonnes due to a shortage of concentrates and economic challenges in several countries, which constrained zinc consumption. However, production is anticipated to rise by 5.1% in 2025, reaching 14.5 million tonnes, further contributing to the surplus.
Zinc consumption grew by 2.2% in 2024 and is projected to increase by another 1.7% in 2025. The Chinese construction sector, responsible for about 50% of global zinc consumption, remains a key driver despite ongoing challenges. Additionally, India’s increased infrastructure spending is expected to bolster demand.
Looking ahead, BMI predicts a prolonged zinc surplus in the global market through 2033, peaking in 2027 with an excess of 578,000 tonnes. By 2028, average zinc prices are projected to fall to $2,700 per tonne, significantly below the 2022 average of $3,440 per tonne. However, the growth of renewable energy and clean transportation in the US, EU, and China is anticipated to drive demand for zinc in electric vehicle manufacturing and corrosion protection for solar panels and wind turbine components.
China is considering new export restrictions on technologies critical to lithium-ion battery production. This follows the Ministry of Commerce’s late-2024 decision to ban exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US—materials essential for electronics and munitions production. The proposed measures include restrictions on battery cathode production methods and the extraction of lithium and gallium from minerals.
The Ministry of Commerce is consulting with stakeholders and aims to finalize these restrictions by the end of January 2025. If approved, export licenses will be required for these technologies. Such measures could solidify China’s dominance in global lithium-ion battery supply chains, increasing the dependence of electric vehicle and energy storage companies worldwide on Chinese exports. This strategic positioning could reshape the global market in favor of China.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a resurgence in 2024, recording its highest trading volumes in a decade. Average daily transactions increased by 18.2% year-on-year to nearly 665,000 lots, with nickel trading surging by 58.8%.
This recovery follows the nickel crisis of March 2022, when prices spiked to $100,000 per tonne amid speculation and geopolitical tensions. While the LME’s intervention prevented further escalation, it also drew criticism and led to the exit of several major players.
In 2024, metal stocks in LME-certified warehouses rose to 2.2 million tonnes, enhancing opportunities for arbitrage, particularly in zinc and aluminum. Renewed interest in non-ferrous metals, driven partly by the renewable energy sector, also fueled trading activity. For instance, September 2024 saw record long positions in tin contracts, while copper trading surged in the first half of the year before slowing due to a strengthening US dollar.
However, the LME faces mounting competition from other exchanges. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has introduced new contracts for alumina, tin, and nickel, while the CME Group and Abaxx Commodity Exchange are expanding offerings in lithium hydroxide, cobalt, and nickel sulfate. This growing competition underscores the evolving dynamics of global metals trading.
Cobalt demand is expected to grow significantly, driven by its critical role in electric vehicle batteries and other applications. The International Energy Agency projects global cobalt consumption to increase from 213,000 tonnes in 2023 to 344,000 tonnes by 2030 and 454,000 tonnes by 2040. However, a potential cobalt shortage looms by 2035 unless over 17 new mines are operational by 2030.
Despite favorable demand forecasts, cobalt prices are under pressure due to surplus supply. Fastmarkets estimates a surplus of 21,000 tonnes in 2025, slightly lower than the 25,000-tonne surplus in 2024. The surplus stems from cobalt’s status as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining, with increased production of these metals adding to cobalt supply.
In 2025, changes in battery chemistry are expected to influence cobalt demand. The growing adoption of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, particularly in China, is slowing demand for cobalt compounds. These batteries, favored for mid- to low-end electric vehicles, offer cost and durability advantages despite lower energy density.
Compounding this situation are policy shifts in the US. Former President Donald Trump’s announcement to reverse Joe Biden’s 2021 executive order on electric vehicle targets and funding for charging infrastructure could dampen demand for cobalt in the American market.
China’s copper imports and production reached new highs in 2024. Copper concentrate imports increased by 2.1% to 28.11 million tonnes, while imports of pure copper and copper products rose by 3.27% to 5.68 million tonnes. December 2024 saw imports of copper concentrate and semi-finished products reach a 13-month peak.
Chinese copper cathode production also hit a record 12.1 million tonnes in 2024, with December output reaching 1.1 million tonnes. This growth reflects improved operational efficiency, with no major smelter shutdowns for maintenance during the month and newly commissioned facilities ramping up production.
However, copper prices declined globally and domestically in December due to a strengthening US dollar. Copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 83,200 tonnes in early January 2025, a 17.3% increase from the 10-month low recorded in December 2024. Despite a seasonal slowdown expected during the Chinese New Year, January’s output is likely to surpass the same period last year.
Weekly Metals News – Jan 13-17Various nickel producers anticipate a challenging 2025 due to an oversupply of the metal, largely driven by increased production from Indonesia. However, reports suggest that the Indonesian government may reduce nickel ore mining quotas to 150 million tonnes, down from 272 million tonnes in 2024. If these reductions occur, the global market could face a significant supply deficit for nickel products. Currently, the quota stands at 200 million tonnes, with actual production in 2024 reaching 215 million tonnes.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that Indonesia’s nickel production in 2024 amounted to approximately 2.2 million tonnes, representing about 56% of global output. This growth is notable, with nickel-containing pig iron output increasing by 7.3% year-on-year to 1.457 million tonnes and nickel matte production surging by 29.1% to 350,000 tonnes.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts a further 7.7% increase in Indonesian nickel production in 2025, bringing the total to 2.4 million tonnes. However, Macquarie warns that if Indonesia cuts mining quotas by 40%, production could plummet by 35% to less than 1.45 million tonnes—a scenario that appears unlikely but would significantly impact the market. Such drastic reductions could disrupt supply chains and lead to sharp fluctuations in global nickel prices, particularly as the metal is critical for electric vehicle batteries, stainless steel production, and renewable energy infrastructure.
Global nickel consumption is expected to grow by 10-12% in 2025, exceeding 2.3 million tonnes, according to Wood Mackenzie. This would reduce the metal’s oversupply. However, ING Bank notes that nickel-free batteries are gaining traction, potentially reducing demand for nickel-rich alternatives. Furthermore, economic trends in Europe and possible changes in US electric vehicle subsidies under a new administration could temper demand growth. If subsidies for EVs are reduced, automakers may shift to alternative battery technologies that are less nickel-dependent, further impacting the metal’s market dynamics.
Korea Zinc is negotiating with US companies to supply antimony following China’s export ban on the metal to the US. This ban, introduced in December 2024, was a response to US restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry.
Antimony is crucial for producing ammunition, night vision devices, and batteries. China, the world’s largest antimony producer, accounted for 40,000 tonnes out of the global 83,000 tonnes in 2023. The US, which does not mine antimony domestically, is particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions. Prices for antimony surged by 200% in 2024, with further increases expected.
US companies are exploring options to secure antimony supplies, including projects by Military Metals in Canada and Slovakia and Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold project, supported by a $1.86 billion loan. However, establishing domestic production will take years. Additionally, logistical challenges and regulatory approvals may delay the operationalization of these projects, leaving the US defense-industrial complex reliant on external sources in the interim.
Korea Zinc, one of the world’s largest zinc producers, currently produces 3,500 tonnes of antimony annually. The Chinese ban provides an opportunity for Korea Zinc to increase exports to the US, leveraging rising antimony prices and securing a stronger foothold in the market. By stepping into the gap created by China’s embargo, Korea Zinc can potentially expand its operations and capture a larger share of the critical materials supply chain.
Mitsubishi Corporation has partnered with Rio Tinto, Vargas, Fortum, and Finnish Industry Investment to develop a low-carbon aluminium production facility in Finland. Fortum will supply electricity for the project, while Rio Tinto will provide AP60 electrolysers, known for their low greenhouse gas emissions.
The feasibility study, managed by Arctial, will guide the decision to construct the facility, which could become Europe’s first new aluminium smelter in over 30 years. The smelter would consume approximately 7 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, sourced from Fortum’s renewable energy plants. Additionally, the project aligns with the European Union’s Green Deal objectives, promoting sustainable and environmentally friendly industrial development.
This project follows Rio Tinto’s $1.1 billion investment in its Canadian aluminium smelter, expanding output by 170,000 tonnes annually. The Finnish project serves as a pilot for further expansion in Europe, potentially challenging competitors like Norsk Hydro. If successful, the partnership could pave the way for additional facilities across the continent, reducing Europe’s reliance on imported aluminium and enhancing the region’s energy transition efforts.
Real Alloy and Altek have announced plans to construct an aluminium salt slag recycling facility in Indiana. The US Department of Energy has committed $67.3 million to the project, with $3 million already disbursed. The facility will process salt slag, a by-product of aluminium recycling that contains up to 30% aluminium, along with iron and silicon oxides.
Altek’s proprietary technology will enable the recovery of aluminium and reusable by-products for industries like steelmaking and construction. Real Alloy, which recycles aluminium scrap across North America, views this project as a revenue growth opportunity amid declining primary aluminium production in the US. Moreover, the initiative reflects broader industry trends towards circular economy practices and resource optimization.
China’s Ministry of Natural Resources has announced significant increases in the country’s lithium reserves, now ranking second globally behind Chile. Exploration in the Western Kunlun-Sunpan-Ganzi belt and the Tibetan Plateau has uncovered reserves exceeding 20 million tonnes.
Advances in mining technologies, including the processing of lithium mica (lepidolite), have expanded resource potential in provinces like Jiangxi and Hunan. Research into extracting lithium from seawater could further revolutionize the industry. Such innovative approaches underscore China’s commitment to securing raw materials for its dominant lithium-ion battery industry, which powers electric vehicles, electronics, and energy storage systems.
China remains the largest producer of lithium-ion batteries and continues to invest in domestic and international projects to secure raw materials. For example, Ganfeng Lithium’s Goulamina mine in Mali, launched in 2024, produces 506,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, with plans to double output. This robust investment strategy ensures China’s leading position in the global battery supply chain while addressing its resource dependency.
Weekly Metals News – Jan 1-10The Chinese government’s recent ban on exports of germanium and gallium to the US has escalated tensions between the two countries. This embargo could significantly impact US industries reliant on these metals, with anticipated price increases for a wide range of electronic and optical equipment, including night vision devices, smartphones, and aircraft navigation systems. Major corporations like Apple, Lockheed Martin, and Honeywell International are expected to be among the hardest hit.
The US Geological Survey estimates that this supply disruption could result in an annual loss of at least $3.4 billion to the US GDP.
There are four potential strategies to mitigate this impact:
Given that China dominates the global production of these materials, accounting for nearly all of the world’s gallium and a significant share of germanium, the US will likely remain reliant on imports until at least 2030.
After peaking at $85,000 per tonne in December 2022, lithium hydroxide prices have plummeted nearly 90% over two years. However, the rate of price decline has slowed, indicating stabilization in the lithium market. Discounts in lithium purchase contracts have also decreased, from 5-10% in 2024 contracts to 0-2% for 2025.
UBS reports that global lithium sales grew by 25% in 2024 and could expand by 15% in 2025. Despite some mines reducing output or delaying expansion due to low prices, major investments in lithium projects continue. General Motors pledged $625 million to the Thacker Pass project, and Rio Tinto committed up to $2.5 billion to Argentina’s Rincon project, with plans to produce 60,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually. The International Energy Agency predicts a lithium deficit exceeding 150,000 tonnes by 2030, though market oversupply is expected to persist until 2027.
Brimstone, a US-based company focused on cement technology, plans to construct a new alumina refinery—the first in the US in decades. The company has secured $189 million in grant funding from the US Department of Energy for the $378 million project, with $8.7 million already disbursed.
The refinery will produce alumina alongside low-carbon cement, using carbon-free calcium-silicate rocks sourced domestically. This project aims to reduce US dependence on imported alumina, with Atlantic Alumina currently operating the only US plant (1.2 million tonnes annual capacity). Historically, the US had six alumina plants producing over 6 million tonnes annually, but five closed between 2000 and 2020 due to rising energy costs.
Brimstone has also raised $40 million from private investors and plans to launch the experimental facility next year, potentially leading to full-scale production in the future.
The Polish government has granted a $133 million subsidy to SK Nexilis, a South Korean company, under the EU’s Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework. This program promotes energy independence and emissions reductions by supporting investments in battery and solar component production.
Copper foil is a critical material for lithium-ion battery anodes, with each electric vehicle requiring 0.35-0.4 tonnes. SK Nexilis began constructing a 50,000-tonne-per-year copper foil plant in Poland in July 2022, with total investments potentially exceeding $690 million. The facility is expected to be operational, although no official opening has been announced.
SK Nexilis aims to become a leading global producer, expanding its capacity to 250,000 tonnes annually by year-end. Major clients include LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On, Panasonic, and CATL. The company is also building plants in Malaysia and exploring expansion in North America.
Mexico’s Supreme Court has upheld mining reforms that nationalized lithium deposits, blocking private extraction and granting exclusive rights to state-owned entities. This decision has disrupted major lithium projects, including Rockland Resources’ Elektra project and Ganfeng Lithium’s Sonora project.
Grupo Bararal, holding a concession for the San Pedro project until 2068, challenged the reforms, but the court rejected its claims. Canadian firm Silver Valley Metals, owner of the Mexi-Can project, is considering international arbitration, although success is uncertain.
Mexico’s lithium reserves are estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, primarily in clay deposits. However, state-owned LitioMx lacks the funding and technology to develop these resources, limiting near-term production growth.
EVelution Energy has secured interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States for a $200 million loan to build a cobalt plant in Arizona. The facility will produce up to 7,000 tonnes of cobalt annually by 2027, powered by solar energy, and create over 3,000 jobs. EVelution has also partnered with Glencore for cobalt supply and price hedging.
In 2023, the US mined only 500 tonnes of cobalt and produced 2,100 tonnes of secondary metal, while importing 9,600 tonnes. Most global cobalt processing occurs in China, using raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo. EVelution’s plant will help meet 40% of domestic demand.
NATO has identified 12 critical materials vital to member defense industries: aluminium, beryllium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, graphite, lithium, manganese, platinum, rare earth elements, titanium, and tungsten. These materials are essential for advanced military technologies, and supply disruptions could hinder defense production.
China dominates global production of many of these materials. For example, it produced 240,000 tonnes of rare earth metals and 63,000 tonnes of tungsten in 2023. Europe, by contrast, produced minimal amounts. NATO is likely to implement measures to support domestic production, but significant changes in supply chains are unlikely within the next five years.
Platinum and Palladium: Unique Properties Driving Global ApplicationsPlatinum and palladium, part of the platinum group metals (PGMs) alongside iridium, osmium, rhodium, and ruthenium, are prized for their rarity, durability, and versatility. Their applications span industries such as automotive, jewelry, and clean energy, with growing importance in the transition to a green economy. Despite being in the same metal group, platinum and palladium exhibit distinct physical properties and uses that set them apart.
Discovered in 1802 by William Hyde Wollaston, palladium is a silvery-white metal with a cubic crystal lattice structure. It is mined primarily in Russia, which produces 92 tonnes annually, and South Africa, with an output of 71 tonnes per year. As one of the rarest metals, palladium is 15 to 30 times scarcer than gold, contributing to its historically high prices. Its lightweight nature, resistance to corrosion, and durability make it ideal for harsh environments and applications like automotive catalytic converters and hydrogen storage.
Platinum, discovered in the 18th century, shares some similarities with palladium but is denser, heavier, and has a higher melting point. These attributes make it suitable for high-temperature industrial applications. South Africa dominates platinum production, holding 95% of global reserves, with Russia as another key supplier. Platinum’s malleability and hypoallergenic properties make it a favorite in jewelry making, while its strength and heat resistance lend themselves to industrial uses.
The key differences between these metals lie in their density and durability. Platinum is denser, with a density of 21.45 g/cm³ compared to palladium’s 12.0 g/cm³, and has a higher melting point, making it better for demanding industrial processes. Palladium is slightly harder, offering more scratch resistance, while platinum’s superior malleability makes it ideal for intricate designs in high-end jewelry.
Applications in Key Industries
Palladium prices surged to $3,000 per troy ounce between 2020 and 2022 due to supply shortages and tighter environmental standards but have since dropped to $1,200 per troy ounce. Platinum, trading at $1,027 per troy ounce, has experienced more stable growth, driven by demand in industrial applications and hydrogen technologies. Analysts predict that platinum prices will rise steadily, while palladium’s outlook is dampened by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters.
South Africa and Russia dominate the production of both metals, creating potential supply chain vulnerabilities. South Africa holds 95% of global platinum reserves, while Russia leads palladium production with 92 tonnes annually.
Both metals are pivotal in a sustainable future. Palladium reduces emissions via catalytic converters, while platinum is indispensable in hydrogen fuel cells. New research on palladium in solar panels and hydrogen energy systems could unlock further applications. As electric vehicles grow in popularity, traditional demand for these metals may decline, but green energy developments provide a promising path forward.
Platinum and palladium are indispensable metals with distinct characteristics and applications. Platinum’s high density and melting point make it ideal for industrial and jewelry applications, while palladium’s lightweight, corrosion-resistant properties support its use in automotive and green technologies. As global industries evolve, these metals are expected to remain at the forefront of innovation, particularly in clean energy and advanced technologies.
Palladium: The Rare Metal Driving Innovation Across IndustriesPalladium, one of the world’s scarcest and most valuable metals, is 30 times rarer than gold. Discovered in 1802 by English chemist William Hyde Wollaston, palladium quickly gained prominence for its unique properties. Initially sold discreetly as “new silver,” it wasn’t until Wollaston defended his findings before the Royal Society of London that palladium was recognized as a distinct metal. Named after the asteroid Pallas, it first found use in jewelry and early tuberculosis treatments, though the latter was abandoned due to side effects.
The late 20th century marked a turning point for palladium, with the introduction of stricter automotive emissions standards in the 1980s. These regulations positioned palladium as a cornerstone of catalytic converter technology, solidifying its place in modern industry.
Palladium’s combination of strength, corrosion resistance, and ductility makes it essential for numerous applications. It is 12.6% harder than platinum, offering excellent wear resistance, while its ability to be formed into ultra-thin sheets as small as 4 microns enhances its versatility. Perhaps most notably, palladium can absorb up to 900 times its own volume in hydrogen, making it critical for hydrogen purification and storage technologies.
Its high resistance to chemical corrosion and strong electrical conductivity further expand its use in cutting-edge technologies.
The automotive industry has historically been palladium’s largest consumer. Catalytic converters, which reduce harmful vehicle emissions, rely on 2–7 grams of palladium per unit. However, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), which do not require catalytic converters, poses challenges for palladium producers, necessitating a shift toward alternative applications.
Palladium plays a pivotal role in the global shift toward clean energy, particularly in hydrogen production and use. Its ability to purify hydrogen through specialized membranes is unparalleled, allowing only hydrogen molecules to pass through while withstanding high pressures and temperatures. Palladium is also used in water electrolysis as a catalyst for green hydrogen production. Companies like Johnson Matthey and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are leveraging palladium technologies to enhance hydrogen efficiency and support decarbonization efforts in transport and heavy industry.
Palladium is revolutionizing water purification by enabling safer and more efficient disinfection methods. Traditional chlorine-based systems require the transport and storage of hazardous chemicals, but palladium-based electrolytic systems produce disinfectants directly at the point of use. These systems use just 0.6 milligrams of palladium per unit, making them economically viable despite the metal’s high cost.
Emerging research points to palladium’s potential in solar power. A new compound of palladium and selenium has shown exceptional photoelectric properties, offering higher efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity than conventional materials. Though still in the experimental phase, these advancements could lead to more efficient solar panels and a broader role for palladium in renewable energy.
Palladium is an indispensable catalyst in the chemical industry, particularly in the production of glycolic acid, which is widely used in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and textiles. Innovations involving palladium and gold nanoparticles on carbon carriers are yielding more environmentally friendly production methods, outperforming existing commercial catalysts in efficiency and selectivity.
Palladium production is concentrated in a few countries, with Russia leading at 92 tonnes annually, followed by South Africa with 71 tonnes. Other notable producers include Canada, Zimbabwe, and the United States. This geographic concentration poses risks to supply stability.
Palladium prices have historically been volatile, spiking to $3,000 per ounce in 2022 due to supply constraints and strong demand from the automotive sector. However, prices have since declined as EV adoption reduces demand for catalytic converters.
Despite potential declines in automotive demand, palladium’s future remains promising due to emerging applications in clean energy and advanced technologies:
Palladium’s rarity and exceptional properties make it indispensable across a wide range of industries, from hydrogen energy and water purification to advanced electronics and solar power. While its traditional role in the automotive sector may wane due to the rise of EVs, new applications in clean energy and sustainable technologies ensure its continued relevance. Ongoing research and development efforts aim to optimize palladium’s use, making it more cost-effective and suitable for broader implementation in a greener future.
Palladium Membranes: The Future of Hydrogen PurificationPalladium membranes are emerging as a highly effective solution for the purification of hydrogen gas, offering a green, efficient, and cost-effective method for meeting the growing demand for pure hydrogen across various industries. Their unique properties—high selectivity and permeability—make them ideal for applications such as fuel cells, ammonia production, and petrochemicals.
“Hydrogen production from hydrocarbons remains the primary source of hydrogen. Before its use in proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, hydrogen must be separated from gas mixtures and purified,” said Sergey Saltykov, Nornickel’s Head of R&D. He noted that membrane purification stands out as one of the most promising methods for this process.
Palladium membranes operate by allowing only hydrogen to pass through while blocking other components in gas mixtures. This is due to palladium’s unique “transparency” to hydrogen. Hydrogen dissolves into the palladium lattice and diffuses through it, while other gases are excluded.
Typically, these membranes are made of a thin palladium layer on a substrate. However, ensuring strong adhesion between the palladium film and the substrate remains a technological challenge. Saltykov explained, “We are integrating advanced physical and electrochemical methods to enhance adhesion in our membranes. This improves their service life and optimizes the hydrogen permeance/selectivity ratio. Our new palladium membranes offer superior hydrogen performance and extended durability compared to existing commercial solutions.”
Palladium membranes bring several key benefits to hydrogen purification:
These advantages make palladium membranes a sustainable and cost-effective alternative for hydrogen purification, addressing the growing demand for clean energy solutions.
Despite their benefits, palladium membranes face challenges, particularly their vulnerability to poisoning by impurities such as sulfur and carbon monoxide. To address this, researchers are developing palladium-based alloys and composite membranes with enhanced resistance to these impurities. Efforts are also focused on improving the mechanical and thermal stability of the membranes, ensuring they can withstand industrial operating conditions.
Palladium membranes hold immense potential for the future of hydrogen purification. Their high selectivity, permeability, and ability to operate at elevated temperatures position them as a critical technology for advancing hydrogen as a clean energy carrier.
Industries such as fuel cells, ammonia production, and petrochemicals stand to benefit from these innovations. Continued research and development aim to refine the design and composition of palladium membranes, reducing their susceptibility to impurities while improving their efficiency and durability.
As global demand for pure hydrogen rises, palladium membranes are likely to play a central role in the transition to a hydrogen-powered future, driving sustainability across multiple industries.
Palladium Catalysts: Revolutionizing Electrochemical Water DisinfectionClean water is a cornerstone of public health and environmental sustainability, yet it remains a limited resource worldwide. Advancements in water treatment technologies are essential to tackle this pressing issue. Among these, palladium-based catalysts are emerging as a promising solution for electrochemical water disinfection, offering greater efficiency, sustainability, and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional methods.
Sodium hypochlorite (chlorine) is widely used for water disinfection in industries and swimming pools. However, this approach has significant drawbacks in industrial applications, including the need to store large quantities of hypochlorite, manage the disposal of expired reagents, and employ additional personnel to oversee the system. These challenges highlight the need for safer, more efficient alternatives.
Electrolysis of a table salt solution to produce hypochlorite on-site is gaining traction as an efficient and eco-friendly water disinfection method. Currently, catalysts based on iridium and ruthenium are employed in commercial water disinfection devices. However, palladium is proving to be a viable and more effective alternative.
Dmitry Korolev, a leading chemist, noted that palladium demonstrates enhanced catalytic activity compared to iridium and ruthenium. “In the very near future, we will present a new technology, an electrode with palladium for electrochemical disinfection of water. We are currently synthesizing experimental samples and determining the optimal chemical composition,” Korolev said.
He emphasized that palladium catalysts improve chlorine production efficiency, making the process more economical and accessible. Additionally, palladium-based catalysts require just 0.6 milligrams of the metal per unit, making the technology cost-effective despite palladium’s higher price compared to other catalytic materials.
Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, is actively developing a new palladium-based catalytic layer for application to electrodes. According to Vitaly Busko, Nornickel’s Vice President for Innovation, this technology could eventually become a standard for water disinfection and even extend to drinking water treatment.
Researchers are exploring synergistic effects by combining palladium with other platinum group metals, aiming to enhance catalytic properties and extend the service life of palladium-based coatings. Initial findings indicate that palladium’s use in electrochemical disinfection is more environmentally friendly and efficient, offering higher water treatment rates and potential for deeper purification.
Experimental prototypes of palladium-based compounds are currently undergoing laboratory testing to refine their chemical composition. Once trials are completed, Nornickel plans to introduce a commercial electrode with palladium for electrochemical water disinfection.
This new technology allows for increased catalyst activity and chlorine output per unit of electricity, making the process more efficient and accessible. It has the potential to revolutionize the water treatment industry, offering a sustainable solution for crystal-clear and bacteria-free water on a global scale.
The integration of palladium in electrochemical water disinfection devices could address one of the most critical global challenges: ensuring clean water access. By enhancing efficiency, reducing environmental impact, and lowering operational costs, palladium-based technologies promise to transform water treatment and provide a scalable solution for both industrial and residential applications.
