Copper has dominated commodity headlines in 2025, with prices swinging sharply amid global trade tensions and major new investments. After hitting a record high above $5.20 per pound in March, copper futures tumbled to a three-month low of $4.03 in April, driven by traders hedging ahead of tariff hikes and then unwinding positions as the market digested new policy risks. By late April, copper futures had rebounded to $4.90 per pound, marking a more than 20% gain since the start of the year.
The turbulence has kept the metals sector on edge. Analysts say copper now stands at a crossroads: a sustained move above $5.00 per pound could signal a new upward trend, while a drop below April’s low might point to broader economic trouble and a possible shift to safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
China, the world’s largest copper consumer, has responded to market volatility by increasing refined copper output. In March, China produced 1.25 million tonnes of refined copper-an 8.6% year-on-year increase-helped by strong by-product sales of gold and sulphuric acid, both of which have seen prices surge in recent months. This trend has helped Chinese smelters offset losses from negative treatment charges, as the sector faces a tight global supply of copper concentrates and ongoing low profitability. Despite these challenges, China’s first-quarter refined copper output reached 3.54 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous year.
Meanwhile, Russia is moving to reshape its copper sector with a $13.4 billion investment in the Baimskaya copper-gold project in Chukotka, a remote region in the country’s far east. The project, backed by state development bank VEB, is expected to boost Russia’s copper output by 25% and gold production by 4% once fully operational. The mine, which will process 70 million tonnes of ore annually, is part of a broader strategy to pivot Russian exports toward Asia and develop the Arctic as a new industrial hub. The project is also set to create 6,000 jobs and generate over three trillion rubles in tax revenue.
Globally, copper’s price swings have been amplified by geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, and shifting demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy. The market’s direction in the coming months will depend on whether copper can hold key technical levels, as well as on macroeconomic indicators and the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations.
