The global copper market is forecast to see a widening surplus over the next two years, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projecting an excess of 289,000 tonnes in 2025 and 209,000 tonnes in 2026. This marks a notable increase from the group’s earlier estimate of a 194,000-tonne surplus for 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected supply growth and softer demand projections. The latest ICSG report indicates that the copper market will experience three consecutive years of surplus following a largely balanced 2023.
Global copper mine production is expected to rise by 2.3% this year, reaching 23.5 million tonnes. The ramp-up of major mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, and the new Malmyzh mine in Russia are key contributors to this increase, though declines in output from Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan are expected to partially offset these gains. In 2026, mine production is projected to grow by another 2.5%, supported by new and expanded capacity, improvements in Chilean and Zambian output, and a recovery in Indonesia after a dip in 2025. A series of smaller projects in countries such as Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Angola will also add to global supply.
Refined copper production is forecast to increase by about 2.9% in 2025, driven by continued capacity expansions in China and new facilities coming online in Indonesia, India, and the DRC. However, global demand growth for refined copper has been revised downward to 2.4% for 2025, from an earlier projection of 2.7%, amid uncertainty over international trade policies and a weakening economic outlook. In 2026, demand is expected to rise by just 1.8%. China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is projected to see demand grow by around 2% in 2025 and only 0.8% in 2026.
Asia will remain the primary driver of global copper consumption, while demand in other major regions is expected to stay subdued. The ICSG notes that while the market outlook could change due to various factors, current trends point to continued oversupply and moderate demand growth in the near term.
