According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), a leading Chinese metals industry data provider, China produced 551,500 metric tonnes of refined zinc in May 2025, marking a 2% increase compared to May 2024 but a 1% decline from April 2025. The cumulative output for the first five months reached approximately 2.658 million tonnes, representing a modest 0.5% rise year-on-year. Despite this growth, SMM noted that production volumes fell short of market expectations due to a combination of emergency incidents at several smelters and scheduled maintenance activities during May.
Maintenance and Operational Interruptions Weigh on May Production
The slight month-on-month decrease in May zinc output is attributed primarily to unplanned disruptions at some facilities alongside planned repairs. Several smelters across key zinc-producing provinces such as Henan, Yunnan, Anhui, Guangxi, Qinghai, and Xinjiang experienced production curtailments. For example, smelters in East and Central China underwent maintenance phases lasting approximately 20 to 25 days, temporarily reducing output. Additionally, a smelter in Southwest China completed maintenance in mid-April and was expected to resume full production in May, partially offsetting declines elsewhere.
In some cases, maintenance was postponed due to external factors such as elevated sulfuric acid prices, which have a direct impact on smelting economics. For instance, a Central China smelter delayed its planned May maintenance until the fourth quarter, while another in Southwest China rescheduled maintenance originally slated for April to late 2025.
June Production Set to Rebound Strongly on New Capacity and Resumptions
Looking ahead, SMM forecasts a 7% increase in refined zinc production in June compared to May, driven by the commissioning of new smelting capacity in Yunnan and Henan provinces. Production restarts following maintenance in Shaanxi, Henan, Anhui, Guangxi, and Shanxi provinces are also expected to contribute to the output surge. Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi are anticipated to see further production gains, although some production controls related to ongoing maintenance in Yunnan and Hunan may temper the overall increase.
Cumulatively, zinc output for the first half of 2025 is projected to rise nearly 2% year-on-year, reflecting a gradual recovery and capacity expansion despite the intermittent disruptions earlier in the year. Production levels are expected to remain elevated into July, supported by the maintenance schedules and capacity utilization patterns currently in place.
Regional Production Dynamics and Market Implications
China remains the world’s largest refined zinc producer, and its output fluctuations have significant implications for global zinc markets. The production increases in provinces such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia reflect ongoing efforts to optimize smelter operations and expand capacity, while declines in regions like Guangxi and Qinghai highlight localized challenges including raw material supply constraints and maintenance cycles.
The interplay of maintenance schedules, emergency incidents, and market conditions such as sulfuric acid pricing influences smelter operating rates and zinc availability. These dynamics contribute to price volatility in both domestic and international zinc markets, affecting downstream sectors including galvanizing, alloy production, and battery manufacturing.
Zinc Market Overview
Zinc is a critical industrial metal primarily used for galvanizing steel to prevent corrosion, alloying, and in emerging applications such as zinc-air batteries. Global zinc supply is sensitive to production changes in China due to its dominant share of refined output, accounting for over 40% of world production.
In 2025, zinc prices have experienced moderate volatility influenced by supply disruptions, inventory levels, and demand fluctuations. The gradual production recovery in China, combined with capacity expansions, is expected to support market balance, although short-term supply interruptions and cost pressures such as sulfuric acid pricing remain key factors to monitor.
Company Background and Market Context
Shanghai Metals Market is a prominent Chinese industry information provider specializing in metals market data, price indices, and production statistics. Its monthly production reports are widely regarded as authoritative sources for tracking supply fundamentals in China’s non-ferrous metals sector.
China’s zinc industry is characterized by a mix of state-owned and private enterprises operating smelting facilities across multiple provinces. Key producing regions include Yunnan, Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan, where ongoing investments in capacity upgrades and environmental compliance shape production trends. The zinc market in China is influenced by domestic demand from construction, automotive, and industrial sectors, as well as export dynamics.
