Russia Aims to Double Copper Output Within 15 Years on Back of Arctic Megaprojects

Russia is planning to double its copper production over the next 15 years, leveraging massive, untapped deposits in its Far East to meet soaring global demand for the metal, which is critical for the green energy transition. Oleg Kazanov, head of the Russian Federal Agency for Subsoil Use (Rosnedra), confirmed the ambitious target, stating that the country has a secure resource base, holding approximately 8.8% of the world’s reserves, and that several large-scale projects are now moving toward implementation. This strategic push aims to solidify Russia’s position as a top-tier copper supplier, primarily targeting Asian markets.

Far East Megaprojects to Drive Production Growth

The plan aims to dramatically increase Russia’s copper output from current levels. The country produces approximately 925,000 tonnes of refined copper annually, accounting for about 3.7% of global output. This growth is underpinned by two colossal mining projects in the country’s Far East, which are among the largest undeveloped copper resources in the world.

• The Baimskoye Deposit (Chukotka): This world-class copper-gold porphyry deposit in the Arctic region is the centerpiece of the expansion. With a projected capital cost of $8.5 billion, backed by a $13.4 billion financing package arranged by state development bank VEB.RF and its partners, the Baimskaya project is a massive undertaking. Once operational, it is expected to process 70 million tonnes of ore annually, with an average output of 300,000 tonnes of copper per year during its first decade. The project includes extensive infrastructure, including a 428-kilometer all-weather road connecting the mine to a new port terminal on the coast for shipments via the Northern Sea Route.
• The Udokan Deposit (Trans-Baikal): As Russia’s largest undeveloped copper deposit with resources estimated at 26.7 million tonnes, Udokan has already commenced concentrate production. The first stage of the project targets an annual output of up to 150,000 tonnes of copper. A planned second stage aims to increase capacity to 450,000 tonnes of copper by 2028. The project, developed by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s company Udokan Copper, is moving forward despite its operator being placed under U.S. sanctions.

Strategic Rationale and Pivot to Asia

Russia’s push to expand copper production is a core component of its broader economic strategy. With comparatively low domestic copper consumption, the vast majority of the new output is destined for export. The Kremlin is strategically targeting the growing demand for copper driven by the global transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy.

This expansion is also deeply tied to Russia’s geopolitical pivot toward Asia. The development of the Northern Sea Route as a primary export channel for projects like Baimskaya is central to President Vladimir Putin’s Arctic strategy, which aims to build new trade corridors to Asia in response to Western sanctions and the breakdown of trade with Europe.

Copper Market Overview

Copper is an indispensable metal for the modern economy, with its demand closely tied to industrial production and technological advancement. The global push for decarbonization has significantly amplified its importance. Electric vehicles require substantially more copper than internal combustion engine cars, and renewable energy infrastructure, including wind turbines and solar farms, is incredibly copper-intensive. Russia’s investment in these large-scale projects is a calculated move to secure a significant share of this expanding market, leveraging its immense resource base to meet future demand, particularly from its key trading partner, China.