Nornickel, Russian producer of nickel and palladium, has lowered its 2025 output guidance across all key metals after first-half production fell 2–6% year on year amid installation and calibration of domestic mining and processing equipment. First-half nickel output declined 4% to 86,850 tonnes, copper slipped 2% to 213,189 tonnes, palladium fell 5% to almost 1.4 million troy ounces and platinum decreased 6% to 335,000 ounces.
Equipment Transition Weighs on Volumes
Management attributed the weaker performance to the replacement of legacy foreign machinery with Russian equipment under an import-substitution programme, which required temporary reductions in ore mining and processing. The company reported stronger value-added output: production of premium nickel grades for superalloys and electroplating and higher volumes of high-quality copper cathodes at customer request. In the second quarter, nickel production rose 9% quarter on quarter to 45,233 tonnes on optimised raw-material supply and maintenance scheduling. Palladium and platinum volumes fell 11% and 14% respectively to 658,000 and 155,000 ounces. The source text cites a second-quarter copper figure of 45,172 tonnes; Nornickel’s official release shows 103,834 tonnes, implying a high first-quarter base that was redirected to export contracts.
Revised 2025 Guidance
Reflecting the extended repair cycle and ongoing adaptation of new fleets, the company cut full-year guidance. Nickel is now projected at 196,000–204,000 tonnes (previously 204,000–211,000), copper at 343,000–355,000 tonnes (from 353,000–373,000), palladium at 2.677–2.729 million ounces (from 2.704–2.756 million) and platinum at 645,000–662,000 ounces (from 662,000–675,000). Senior vice president and chief operating officer Alexander Popov said large repairs in the second half will enhance reliability of core processing equipment while the adaptation of import-substituting mining equipment continues, after which output should normalise.
Company Background and Market Context
Nornickel remains the world’s largest palladium supplier and a major producer of refined nickel, copper and platinum. Last year it produced 205,000 tonnes of nickel, 433,000 tonnes of copper, nearly 2.8 million ounces of palladium and 667,000 ounces of platinum. The current modernisation aims to improve product quality and reduce reliance on Western suppliers under sanctions and financial restrictions. A stronger rouble—trading near RUB79 per US dollar—supports domestic purchasing power but can compress dollar-denominated export margins when converted to local currency.
Nickel, central to Nornickel’s portfolio, is used in stainless steel and battery chemistries. LME nickel cash prices sit around $15,300 per tonne, while copper trades close to $9,860 per tonne amid policy-driven shifts in global flows. Palladium prices have rallied toward $1,260–$1,300 per ounce this month alongside gains in platinum above $1,400, providing a partial earnings offset to lower physical volumes.
