China’s Copper Output Set for Another Record Despite Mounting Pressure on Smelters

China’s copper production is expected to reach another record in 2025, even as smelters face increasing financial strain. The sector has continued expanding despite a sharp decline in processing fees, prompting government scrutiny and plans to curb new capacity. However, existing projects will proceed as planned, driving further output growth in the coming years.

A survey by Mysteel Global indicates that refined copper production in China, the world’s largest producer, is forecast to grow by approximately 4.9% in 2025, reaching between 12.4 million and 12.45 million tons. This marks an acceleration from the 3.1% growth recorded last year.

At the same time, conditions for smelters are deteriorating. Spot treatment charges for imported copper concentrate have turned negative, with firms now paying more than $20 per ton to process raw material—an unprecedented loss, according to Metal Bulletin. By contrast, in August 2023, smelters could charge nearly $90 per ton. While longer-term treatment fees remain positive, they remain below breakeven levels, compounding financial pressures.

Despite the downturn in China’s construction sector, copper demand remains robust, supported by the expansion of renewable energy projects. However, the rising output levels appear increasingly unsustainable given the financial losses incurred by many producers. Competition among smelters has intensified due to tight global supplies of copper concentrate, with larger, state-owned enterprises willing to sustain losses to maintain local employment and market dominance.

Smelters are exploring operational adjustments to mitigate losses. Many are increasing their reliance on scrap copper as an alternative to concentrate, sourcing ore with higher gold content, or lowering the copper purity of their final output, according to Mysteel analyst Li Chengbin. Scheduled maintenance shutdowns are also expected to increase, with around 3.2 million tons of capacity set to be idled for roughly a month in the second quarter of 2025, up from 2.7 million tons during the same period last year.