Fidelity International, asset manager, and Goldman Sachs, investment bank, have both argued gold could challenge fresh records into 2026, with Fidelity saying prices could reach $4,000/oz by the end of next year as the Federal Reserve eases policy, the dollar weakens and official-sector purchases remain strong. Spot bullion traded around $3,310–$3,350/oz in early August after a jump on softer U.S. payrolls, keeping year-to-date gains above 25%.
Forecasts point to a higher range
Ian Samson, a multi-asset manager at Fidelity, said the firm had added to positions on recent dips, citing a “clearer path” to a more dovish Fed and a seasonally softer August backdrop. Fidelity’s call is broadly echoed by Goldman, which in May lifted its year-end 2025 base case to $3,700/oz and sketched a path toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026 under supportive macro conditions. JPMorgan has also discussed scenarios with prices above $4,000/oz by 2026, while others such as Citi remain more cautious in the near term.
Rates, the dollar and policy risk
The immediate support for bullion is the growing probability of Fed cuts into late 2025 as U.S. growth cools—markets firmed those bets after July payrolls missed and two governors publicly flagged willingness to ease sooner to support a softening labor market. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, while a weaker dollar tends to lift non-U.S. demand. Trade policy is an additional swing factor: a new round of U.S. tariff measures has contributed to bouts of risk aversion this year, at times amplifying haven bids.
Central banks extend a powerful bid
Official-sector buying has underpinned the cycle. The World Gold Council estimates central banks added 1,045 tonnes in 2024—the third straight year above 1,000 tonnes—and its mid-2025 survey shows a rising share of reserve managers planning further purchases. Persistent official demand has blunted the impact of ETF outflows and episodic profit-taking by financial investors.
Positioning and price action
Gold set multiple records earlier in 2025 amid tariff uncertainty and falling U.S. real yields, briefly topping $3,100/oz in March and revisiting the mid-$3,000s in April. After consolidating through early summer, prices rebounded on August 1 as weak jobs data reinforced the prospect of a September rate cut. The next catalyst is this week’s Fed meeting and accompanying guidance; while no immediate move is expected, any dovish shift in tone would validate the bullish case.
Risks to the bullish narrative
Key downside risks include a firmer-than-expected U.S. economy that keeps policy tight for longer, renewed dollar strength, or a pause in central-bank purchases—JPMorgan and others flag that an unexpected drop in official demand would be the single largest fundamental threat. Conversely, deeper growth slippage or an escalation in geopolitical tensions could pull forward test-runs of the upper end of banks’ price ranges.
Company Background and Market Context
Fidelity International, a global asset manager, and Goldman Sachs, a leading dealer in bullion markets, have been among the more constructive voices on gold’s medium-term outlook. Their views intersect with a macro setup of easing U.S. policy, sticky fiscal deficits and persistent central-bank diversification—all historically supportive backdrops for bullion. Near-term fluctuations aside, the mix of policy accommodation and official-sector demand explains why large allocators have increased positions even after 2025’s run-up.
Gold is a non-yielding store of value whose demand is driven by real interest rates, currency trends and risk sentiment. With spot near the mid-$3,000s and consensus leaning toward Fed easing into 2026, the metal retains asymmetric upside if growth slows and the dollar fades; equally, a growth surprise or a dollar rebound could cap rallies in the near term.
