Aurubis, copper and precious metals recycler, is betting on a €740 million ($868 million) investment in Richmond, Georgia to accelerate earnings from fiscal 2026/27 after start-up losses, while guiding current-year operating pre-tax profit to the middle of a €300–€400 million ($352–$469 million) range. The first Richmond module is due to start in September 2024, with a second in 2026 that will double annual throughput to 180,000 tons; management expects the complex to contribute positively from the 2026/27 year ending 30 September.
US Recycling Expansion
The Richmond facility processes circuit boards, copper cables and other complex scrap, underpinning Aurubis’s push to expand multi-metal recycling in the US market. Less than 1% of the group’s output is exported to the United States, and management sees new US import tariffs under the Trump administration as indirectly supportive by encouraging domestic sourcing of copper products. Once both phases are complete, the plant is designed for about 200 employees and 180,000 tons of annual feed, according to company disclosures.
Earnings Outlook and Investment Programme
For fiscal 2024/25 Aurubis forecasts operating pre-tax earnings in the middle of its €300–€400 million ($352–$469 million) target, after €410 million ($481 million) last year and €229 million ($269 million) in the first half. Second-half contributions are expected to benefit from higher copper product sales and “very high” sulfuric acid revenues, partly offsetting a “difficult” price environment. Return on capital edged up to 10.2% from 10%, with an equity ratio steady at 55.6%. The company has earmarked €1.7 billion ($1.99 billion) of total investment through mid-decade, anticipating the bulk will be deployed before the US plant turns profitable.
Decarbonisation Projects and Tariff Environment
Capital spending includes hydrogen-ready anode furnaces in Hamburg, a €40 million ($47 million) project that could cut approximately 5,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually when operated solely on hydrogen, and expansion of a Bulgarian solar park to over 40 MW of peak output. Aurubis expects tariff uncertainty to have limited direct impact given its minimal US export exposure, while US policy shifts may adjust global flows of refined copper and scrap.
Analyst Views and Valuation
External forecasts point to a step change in earnings in 2026/27 as start-up expenses fade and new capacity ramps. Oddo BHF analyst Maxime Kogge lifted his price target from €82 ($96) to €105 ($123), arguing: “Investments are likely to continue to decline in the next fiscal year, while at the same time the growth contributions from new projects will increase.” DZ Bank’s Dirk Schlamp maintained a buy recommendation with a €93 ($109) target but cautioned that potential market turmoil from US tariffs is “not yet fully foreseeable,” urging investors to monitor the policy risk. Aurubis’s 2026 price/earnings multiple of 14 leaves scope for re-rating if projected profit growth materialises.
Company Background and Market Context
Headquartered in Hamburg, Aurubis is Europe’s largest copper producer and recycler, operating a network of smelters and refineries across Germany, Bulgaria and Belgium. The Richmond project marks its first US production site and a bid to capture rising North American demand for recycled metals as electrification accelerates. The group’s balance sheet metrics—moderate leverage and a high equity ratio—provide capacity to execute the €1.7 billion programme while advancing decarbonisation initiatives.
Copper underpins electrical infrastructure and renewable energy equipment. LME three-month copper recently traded around $9,930 per tonne amid trade-policy uncertainty and uneven industrial demand. While macro headwinds weigh on near-term pricing, structural consumption growth from grid expansion and electric vehicles continues to incentivise investment in low-carbon recycling capacity.
