Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, announced on Monday that copper prices have likely reached their highest point for 2025 due to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The commission forecasts average copper prices will remain above $8,000 per ton this year but warns that ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties could weaken future projections.
The trade dispute, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, has created instability in global commodity markets. Cochilco noted that base metals, including copper, are particularly vulnerable to these dynamics. Analysts suggest that demand contraction from affected industries may offset supply shortages, creating a precarious balance in the market as copper prices have already declined by 12% from their peak earlier this year.
Despite these challenges, Cochilco maintains that copper prices will stay above $8,000 per ton throughout 2025, supported by structural supply deficits and robust demand from sectors such as renewable energy and electric vehicles. However, the commission cautioned that if current conditions persist, demand could slow further relative to initial assumptions made at the start of the year.
The announcement comes as Chile prepares to revise its official 2025 copper price forecast downward from $8,500 per ton to a range between $7,800 and $8,000 per ton. This adjustment reflects growing concerns about market volatility and the impact of geopolitical tensions on industrial metal consumption.
Copper remains a critical indicator of global economic health due to its widespread use in construction, electronics, and transportation. As trade conflicts continue to reshape supply chains and demand patterns, the metal’s price stability will depend heavily on developments in U.S.-China relations and broader macroeconomic trends.
