Department of the Interior, federal resource agency, and the U.S. Geological Survey, science bureau, have proposed a 2025 list of 54 critical minerals that newly elevates copper and silver to “critical” status, shaping federal investment, permitting and stockpiling strategy for the next three years. The draft, to be posted in the Federal Register on August 26 for a 30-day comment period, also recommends removing arsenic and tellurium and signals potential consideration of metallurgical coal and uranium in the final list.
What’s changing in the 2025 draft
Interior said the draft will guide direct investments in mining, processing and recycling, as well as tax incentives and streamlined permitting. Besides copper and silver, other additions include silicon, rhenium and lead. “This draft List of Critical Minerals provides a clear, science-based roadmap to reduce our dependence on foreign adversaries, expand domestic production and unleash American innovation,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said. The department invited public input on whether fuels currently excluded—metallurgical coal and uranium—should be considered for inclusion before the list is finalized.
Methodology and risk signals
USGS said the update reflects a new economic model that estimates the potential effects of foreign trade disruptions across 402 U.S. industries, assessing more than 1,200 scenarios for 84 minerals and weighting outcomes by probability. Acting USGS director Sarah Ryker noted that minerals-based industries contributed more than $4 trillion to the U.S. economy in 2024; the new framework pinpoints where domestic investment or trade relationships could best mitigate risk. The analysis highlighted samarium, rhodium, lutetium, terbium and dysprosium among the highest-risk commodities by probability-weighted impact.
Market and policy context
Designation affects the federal toolkit: project eligibility for grants and loans, accelerated permitting, stockpile decisions and potential trade measures. Copper’s addition reflects the metal’s centrality to grid upgrades, data-center power demand and transport electrification, while silver underpins electronics and solar manufacturing. Rhenium’s aerospace superalloy uses and lead’s role in industrial batteries and grid backup systems round out the policy focus. The draft update is required every three years under the Energy Act of 2020 and follows the list’s origin in a 2017 executive order to assess mineral supply vulnerabilities.
Agency Background and Market Context
Interior oversees federal mineral policy; USGS provides the technical basis for the list. The open-file report details how supply concentration, U.S. import dependence, spare capacity outside potential restricting countries, and short-term elasticities feed into GDP impacts, grouped via statistical “natural breaks” to classify risk. The department emphasized that impacts expressed as probability-weighted GDP deltas can look small against the overall economy but that real-world disruption of a single mineral can ripple through sectors such as semiconductors and defense. Industry groups broadly welcomed the modernization of the list; the National Mining Association said the update recognizes materials “essential to everything from rebuilding and modernizing the nation’s infrastructure to supporting our national security,” while arguing that supportive policies should apply across U.S. mined materials given co-production and fast-shifting technology needs.
Copper is a backbone metal for electricity networks and transport, with demand tied to grid expansion, data-center loads and EV adoption; supply risk is shaped by permitting timelines and concentration in a few producing regions. Silver straddles industrial and investment demand, with electronics and solar as key end-uses; policy efforts to diversify supply chains aim to reduce exposure to processing bottlenecks overseas.
