Nornickel Predicts Diverging Market Trends for Key Metals in 2025
Nornickel, a leading Russian mining company and a top producer of palladium and nickel, has released its market projections for 2025, highlighting distinct supply and demand dynamics for copper, nickel, platinum, and palladium. Each metal’s outlook reflects a mix of global economic factors and industry-specific developments.
Copper
The global copper market, currently in surplus by 200,000 tonnes in 2024, is forecasted to reach equilibrium by 2025. Growing demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors will drive this balance. However, industrial stagnation in Europe and economic uncertainties in the US could temper overall demand. Meanwhile, China’s addition of 2 million tonnes of steelmaking capacity will further strain the copper supply chain, as only 600,000 tonnes of new copper concentrates are expected to enter the market, posing challenges for smelters.
Palladium
After facing a deficit of 0.9 million troy ounces in 2024, the palladium market is expected to stabilize by 2025. This shift is attributed to robust Russian production and declining demand from the automotive industry, where the transition away from internal combustion engines is reducing the need for palladium-based catalytic converters in major markets like the US, China, and Japan.
Platinum
While the platinum market remains balanced in 2024, it is anticipated to enter a deficit of 0.2 million troy ounces by 2025. This shortfall stems from constrained supply and steady demand, highlighting potential challenges for industries reliant on this precious metal.
Nickel
Nickel's surplus of 150,000 tonnes in 2024 is projected to persist into 2025, driven by rapid production capacity expansions in Indonesia and China. Supply growth is outpacing demand from key sectors like batteries for electric vehicles, superalloys, and stainless steel. Additionally, stockpiles of high-grade nickel, bolstered by new production in China, will keep the surplus steady. Over-the-counter reserves are expected to contribute significantly to this oversupply.
Nornickel’s forecasts underline the varying trajectories of these metals, reflecting the broader economic and industrial shifts influencing global markets.
