In March 2025, spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China fell to USD 10,220-10,500 per metric ton (MT), averaging USD 10,360/MT by the end of the month—a 2% month-on-month (MoM) decline. Similarly, CIF prices for Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6) dropped to USD 820-848/MT, averaging USD 834/MT, down 4.7% MoM. This marks a continuation of February’s downward trend in lithium prices.
The decline is primarily attributed to oversupply in the market. Lithium salt plants resumed operations after the Lunar New Year, new production capacity came online, and imports from Chile further increased supply. Many downstream buyers had stocked up before the holiday season and relied on existing inventories in March, leading to weaker-than-expected demand. This dynamic caused inventory levels to rise across the supply chain, exacerbating oversupply. Falling SC6 prices also reduced cost support for battery-grade lithium carbonate, amplifying price pressures.
Looking ahead, the situation is unlikely to improve in the short term. As warmer weather boosts brine pool lithium production in April, supply is expected to remain high. If demand continues to lag and supply does not adjust, both battery-grade lithium carbonate and SC6 prices are likely to face further declines.
In contrast to falling lithium prices, average prices for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells in China rose slightly in March. The after-tax price range for 280Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.24-0.35/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.295/Wh—up 1.7% MoM. Prices for 100Ah LFP cells also increased by 1.5% MoM, averaging RMB 0.340/Wh. This modest rebound reflects tight spot supply and rising costs of other key materials like graphite and copper foil.
Leading manufacturers maintained sufficient global orders by securing major clients and slightly raising prices amid inventory reductions. However, smaller producers continued clearing stock at lower prices, creating a significant price gap between top-tier and smaller manufacturers.
The growing adoption of high-capacity cells like 314Ah LFP cells is also influencing market dynamics. These cells are increasingly used in utility-scale storage projects and commercial and industrial (C&I) applications in China. With certifications for export markets underway, they are expected to become mainstream globally by the end of 2025.
