Goldman Sachs has lowered its aluminium price forecast for 2025, citing the effects of new US tariffs on aluminium and automotive imports. The US-based bank now expects prices to average $2,000 per tonne in the third quarter of 2025, a substantial downgrade from its earlier estimate issued six months ago. Prices are forecast to recover modestly to $2,300 per tonne by the end of the year, still well below the previously projected $2,650.
At the time the new outlook was published on April 14, aluminium was trading around $2,392 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
The bank also made a notable revision to its global market balance forecast, now anticipating a surplus of 580,000 tonnes in 2025. This contrasts sharply with its earlier prediction of a 76,000-tonne deficit. The change reflects a decline in projected global aluminium demand, which Goldman Sachs now expects to shrink by 1.1% in 2025 and by 2.3% in 2026. These figures represent a reversal from the bank’s previous forecast of demand growth at 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively — projections that had been underpinned by more optimistic global GDP assumptions.
Further out, Goldman Sachs expects aluminium prices to increase again from 2026, though at a slower pace than previously estimated. By December 2026, prices are forecast to reach $2,720 per tonne, down from a prior projection of $3,100. For 2027, the bank predicts an average price of $2,800 per tonne as the market shifts into a forecast deficit of 722,000 tonnes.
