Goldman Sachs Cuts Aluminium Price Outlook on US Tariff Impact

Goldman Sachs has lowered its aluminium price forecast for 2025, citing the effects of new US tariffs on aluminium and automotive imports. The US-based bank now expects prices to average $2,000 per tonne in the third quarter of 2025, a substantial downgrade from its earlier estimate issued six months ago. Prices are forecast to recover modestly to $2,300 per tonne by the end of the year, still well below the previously projected $2,650.

At the time the new outlook was published on April 14, aluminium was trading around $2,392 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

The bank also made a notable revision to its global market balance forecast, now anticipating a surplus of 580,000 tonnes in 2025. This contrasts sharply with its earlier prediction of a 76,000-tonne deficit. The change reflects a decline in projected global aluminium demand, which Goldman Sachs now expects to shrink by 1.1% in 2025 and by 2.3% in 2026. These figures represent a reversal from the bank’s previous forecast of demand growth at 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively — projections that had been underpinned by more optimistic global GDP assumptions.

Further out, Goldman Sachs expects aluminium prices to increase again from 2026, though at a slower pace than previously estimated. By December 2026, prices are forecast to reach $2,720 per tonne, down from a prior projection of $3,100. For 2027, the bank predicts an average price of $2,800 per tonne as the market shifts into a forecast deficit of 722,000 tonnes.