Global Cobalt and Lithium Production Capacity Set to Double by 2030

The world’s capacity to produce cobalt and lithium—two essential elements for batteries used in mobile devices, tools, and electric vehicles—is expected to double over the next five years, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) inaugural World Minerals Outlook. Meanwhile, production capacity for gallium, palladium, platinum, and helium is expected to remain stable.

“The USGS scans the horizon for future supply chain risks across a broad range of minerals, informing strategies from mapping domestic resources to recycling and reprocessing mine waste,” said Sarah Ryker, acting USGS director. “The World Minerals Outlook makes more of that foresight available publicly for U.S. leaders, federal agencies, industry, and the public.”

This report is the first in a series of multiyear forecasts on the production, consumption, and recycling patterns of all 50 critical minerals, as directed by the Energy Act of 2020. The report methodology incorporates announced, funded projects, plant closures, and idled capacities to assess future mineral production capacity.

Key Findings:

• Magnesium projects outside China have lost funding or faced obstacles, leading to idled capacity globally.
• The U.S. has idled its titanium sponge production capacity, increasing reliance on imports from Japan.
• Gallium production capacity outside China could expand, with potential output from Germany, Kazakhstan, and South Korea in response to China’s export ban on the metal.
• U.S. and North American cobalt production has stalled due to price pressures from market leader China.
• Palladium demand is expected to decline as electric vehicle adoption grows, potentially leading to further idling of domestic palladium production if prices remain low.

“The production capacity data in the World Minerals Outlook tells us where industry and markets expect demand to grow, such as with lithium and cobalt,” said Elisa Alonso, lead author of the report. “As U.S. leaders aim to increase domestic production of critical minerals to reduce reliance on non-market economies and mitigate risks, these data help identify where U.S. capacity may fall short of demand.”