World copper mine output up 2% in January, refined copper in deficit

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports world copper mine production increased by about 2% in January 2025, with concentrate production rising 2.9% while solvent extraction-electrowinning declined 0.9%.

Peru's copper mine production grew 7% year-on-year, primarily due to the Quellaveco ramp-up and higher output at several other mines. The Democratic Republic of Congo saw production increase approximately 6%, mainly from the Kamoa mine expansion.

Asian production rose about 3% while North American output declined 2%. Chile's production fell 2.7% year-on-year in January, attributed to lower output at Collahuasi, Los Bronces, Codelco mines, and Los Pelambres.

World refined copper production grew approximately 1% in January, with primary production up 0.9% and secondary production from scrap increasing 1.3%. Growth was limited by a 14% decline in Chilean output, where electrolytic production dropped 24% and electrowinning fell 8%.

Production in China and DRC, which represent about 54% of world total production, remained essentially unchanged. Asian production excluding China increased about 10%, primarily due to higher output in India and Indonesia, though cathode production at two new Indonesian smelter projects has been delayed to the first half of 2025.

World apparent refined copper usage grew about 1% in January. Chinese apparent demand is estimated to have increased around 1%, while usage outside China rose approximately 0.5%, with growth in several Asian and Middle East/North Africa countries offset by weak demand in the EU, Japan, and the United States.

The preliminary world refined copper balance shows an apparent deficit of about 19,000 tonnes in January 2025, compared to a deficit of 24,000 tonnes in January 2024. When adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks, the market deficit was approximately 17,000 tonnes.

Copper stocks at major metal exchanges totaled 613,879 tonnes at the end of February, up 43% from December 2024 levels. The average LME cash price for February was $9,329.25 per tonne, up 3.9% from January's average of $8,977.57.