Nornickel, Russian non-ferrous producer, and China’s customs authorities point to a sharp re-routing of trade: Russian copper exports to China rose 81% year on year to more than 564,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025, with shipment value up 2.5x to $3.3 billion. Volumes are just 81,000 tonnes shy of the full-year 2024 total and already above the 2019 peak, according to Kommersant. Nornickel attributed the increase to the removal of Russia’s export duty on cathode copper that applied last year and to China offering the most liquid outlet as many Western buyers self-restrict.
What China bought
Customs data indicate two main streams: copper ore and concentrates at 339,000 tonnes ($1.1 billion) and high-purity cathode (>99.9935% Cu) at 190,500 tonnes ($1.8 billion). The surge extends a broader pattern of Russia redirecting base-metal sales eastward as US/UK measures since April 2024 limited newly produced Russian copper’s access to Western exchanges and, in the US, banned imports of newly produced Russian copper.
Tariff whiplash reshapes regional pricing
A separate US tariff saga helped pull copper toward China. For weeks, traders stockpiled refined metal into the US ahead of a planned 50% tariff starting August 1, widening the COMEX premium over the London Metal Exchange (LME). On July 30–31, Washington narrowed the measure to copper products (wire, tube, etc.), exempting refined cathode, triggering a 17–20% plunge in COMEX prices and erasing much of the premium. With the arbitrage shut, excess US inventories may now be re-exported, while the White House signalled potential refined-copper tariffs from 2027.
Why Russia’s metal is going East
Beyond tariffs, structural constraints in Western markets persist. LME/CME rules aligned with US/UK sanctions curb warranting and trading of newly produced Russian copper, complicating sales into traditional channels. That, plus the lapse of Russia’s flexible export duty regime that applied across many goods in 2024, has reinforced the commercial logic of selling into China. In commentary to Kommersant, Nornickel called China the “most convenient” market for liquidity and price discovery.
Market impact and outlook
The H1 flow shift landed as LME three-month copper hovered near $9,800/t, down ~1% over the week through July 29, while price dislocations between US and global benchmarks unwound after the tariff adjustment. Russian producers see room to lift share in China, where demand is expected to firm in H2 and Chinese imports have been rising from multiple origins. Analysts cited by Kommersant link Russia’s higher exports to slower domestic investment demand at home and to recovering activity in China.
Company Background and Market Context
Nornickel is a major global producer of nickel, copper and PGM metals. While not directly sanctioned by the US/EU, the company has faced transaction and market-access frictions since 2024, and has increased sales to Asia. Bloomberg previously reported Nornickel working with Shandong Gold to boost cathode flows to China. The broader picture: China’s role as the marginal buyer has grown across Russian metals, with base-metal shipments to China climbing sharply through mid-2025.
Copper is a backbone material for grids, autos and construction. The recent US tariff pivot may ease US-centric tightness but does little to change fundamental consumption in China, where fabrication and smelting capacity continue to expand. If US policy later extends to refined cathode, trade routes could shuffle again; until then, China remains the primary sink for Russian copper displaced from Western channels.
