Global copper markets are expected to experience a supply surplus in 2025, according to the latest report released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The ICSG forecasts refined copper production will outpace demand by approximately 467,000 metric tonnes, reversing from a supply deficit of 160,000 metric tonnes projected for 2024.
The report attributes the shift to a substantial 3.8% increase in global copper mine output anticipated for 2025. New mining projects and expanded capacity at existing mines, particularly in South America and Africa, are expected to drive production growth. Production challenges faced in recent years due to logistical constraints and declining ore grades are also projected to ease, further supporting output expansion.
Refined copper production, including both primary and secondary (scrap-based) sources, is projected to rise by around 4.3% in 2025. This growth is supported by an expected increase in smelter capacities, especially in China and Indonesia, alongside improved availability of copper concentrates.
Global refined copper consumption, however, is forecasted to grow at a slower pace of approximately 1.7%, driven by modest increases in industrial activity, infrastructure development, and green energy transitions. Chinese consumption is projected to remain steady, albeit at moderate growth levels, while consumption in Europe and North America is expected to be slightly higher compared to previous years.
Despite this anticipated surplus, the ICSG cautioned that uncertainties persist, especially regarding geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and broader economic conditions. These factors could significantly influence both production and consumption trends throughout 2025.
