Cobalt prices have surged nearly 37% in the past month, climbing from $23,985 per metric ton to $32,795 per metric ton, following the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) decision to halt metal exports at the end of February 2025. The DRC, which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cobalt, introduced the four-month export ban to stabilize prices after a prolonged period of oversupply and falling values. Since the ban’s enforcement, cobalt prices have soared, with recent trading showing a 38.7% increase since the start of the year and spot prices now exceeding $33,000 per ton.
The price rally has been further fueled by strategic buying from Chinese companies and speculation that the DRC may extend the export ban beyond its initial four-month term. Cobalt futures in China have jumped more than 9% as buyers scramble to secure supply, and European spot prices have also climbed sharply, with standard grade cobalt in Rotterdam rising to $12.25 per pound in early March. The DRC government has signaled that it will reassess the ban’s impact at the end of June, with the possibility of an extension if market stability is not achieved.
The export ban has also introduced new regulatory measures, including a state monopoly on artisanal cobalt exports and a prohibition on mixing artisanal and industrially mined cobalt. Major producers such as China’s CMOC Group and Glencore are directly impacted. CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt miner, more than doubled its output to 114,000 metric tons in 2024, contributing to the global oversupply that initially drove prices to nine-year lows before the ban.
Market analysts remain divided on the longer-term outlook. Some expect that sustained high prices could accelerate the shift by battery manufacturers toward alternative chemistries, such as lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), which now accounts for over 80% of new electric vehicle batteries in China. Others predict that prices will drop again once the DRC lifts the ban and the market returns to oversupply, especially as CMOC and other miners maintain aggressive production targets. The DRC’s actions underscore the geopolitical risks and supply chain vulnerabilities facing global battery and technology manufacturers as cobalt remains a critical mineral for the clean energy transition.
