CMOC’s Cobalt Surge Deepens Global Oversupply, Prices Plunge 50% in Two Years
Cobalt prices have halved over the past two years, largely driven by a surge in supply from China’s CMOC Group. The company’s aggressive production growth has significantly contributed to the global oversupply of cobalt, pushing prices down from over $28,000 per tonne in January 2024 to under $24,000 by December on the London Metal Exchange.
CMOC, which operates the Kisanfu and Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), reported producing 114,165 tonnes of cobalt in 2024—more than double the 55,526 tonnes produced in 2023. This sharp increase has been identified by the Cobalt Institute as a major factor in the ongoing market surplus, with the Kisanfu mine playing a central role.
Despite the falling prices, CMOC has not announced any plans to scale back cobalt production. Last August, the company projected a slowdown in global supply for the latter half of 2024, but production continued to outpace demand. CMOC even surpassed its original 2024 production target of 70,000 tonnes.
The rise in cobalt output coincided with strong copper prices, which peaked at over $10,000 per tonne in May 2024. As cobalt is a by-product of copper mining, CMOC's increased copper production—reaching over 650,000 tonnes in 2024, a 55% year-on-year increase—further fueled cobalt oversupply.
Looking ahead, CMOC has yet to release its 2025 production forecast. However, the Cobalt Institute anticipates another year of market surplus, which could maintain downward pressure on cobalt prices. As of January 3, 2025, cobalt was trading at $24,300 per tonne, while copper stood at $8,876 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
