Copper prices experienced unprecedented volatility on April 7, 2025, plunging as much as 7.7% within 15 minutes of opening on the London Metal Exchange (LME) before rebounding nearly $1,000 per ton in just over two hours. The dramatic recovery was driven by a surge in buying activity from Chinese importers and fabricators, who capitalized on the price collapse to secure metal at discounted rates.
The initial drop pushed copper prices below $8,500 per ton, triggering panic selling and algorithmic trades that amplified the downward pressure. However, Chinese buyers quickly stepped in, taking advantage of a rare arbitrage opportunity between LME prices and higher domestic prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). This price gap briefly exceeded $1,000 per ton, making imports highly profitable for traders with access to international markets.
Copper premiums in China jumped to $87 per ton—the highest level since December 2023—reflecting intense competition for physical supplies. Traders reported fulfilling only 30–50% of customer orders due to limited inventory, further tightening the market. Major Chinese producers like Zijin Mining increased spot purchases by approximately 40% during the price trough.
Despite the rebound, analysts remain cautious about copper’s near-term outlook amid escalating trade tensions. Citigroup predicts prices could fall further to $7,500–$8,000 per ton, while Bank of America warns of a potential drop to as low as $5,700 per ton if global growth expectations deteriorate. The unfolding tariff war between the U.S. and China continues to weigh heavily on industrial metals markets.
