China’s Copper Cathode Rod Production Drops in January 2025 Amid Holiday Slowdown
China’s copper cathode rod production fell to 716,000 metric tons (mt) in January 2025, marking a month-on-month (MoM) decline of 181,700 mt, according to data from SMM. The national operating rate dropped to 51.99%, down 16.38 percentage points MoM and 11.9 percentage points year-on-year (YoY).
In East China, copper rod production totaled 478,900 mt with an operating rate of 58.47%, reflecting a 9.16 percentage point YoY decrease. South China produced 106,300 mt with an operating rate of 46.64%, down 16.76 percentage points YoY. Data for other regions can be found in the SMM database.
The decline in production coincided with the Chinese New Year festivities and rising copper prices, which suppressed downstream buying interest. The average price of SMM 1 copper cathode in January was 75,023.61 yuan/mt ($10,512/mt), up 581.56 yuan/mt MoM. Additionally, the price gap between copper cathode rods and secondary copper rods widened by 412 yuan/mt MoM.
As consumption weakened toward the end of January due to the holiday, copper cathode rod production generally halted, contributing to the monthly decline. While the operating rate decreased by 11.9 percentage points YoY, it rose by 11.97 percentage points MoM when compared to February 2024 on a lunar calendar basis, due to differences in the timing of the Chinese New Year.
Looking ahead, the average operating rate for January-February 2025 is expected to be 52.78%, a slight YoY increase of 0.82 percentage points. Production is forecast to rebound slightly in February as the holiday atmosphere fades. Most copper rod enterprises are anticipated to resume production before the Lantern Festival. However, with the first ten days of February still within the Chinese New Year holiday, the actual number of production days will remain comparable to January.
National copper cathode rod production in February is projected to reach 737,700 mt, with an operating rate of 53.56%, maintaining relatively low levels. On the consumption side, post-holiday copper price surges have led to slow recovery in end-use consumption, with new orders remaining sluggish. If copper prices do not decline significantly, restocking demand may pick up after the Lantern Festival.
