China has unveiled a comprehensive plan to enhance the quality and sustainability of its aluminum industry by 2027, setting ambitious targets for resource security, green transformation, and technological innovation. The plan, spearheaded by ten government departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), arrives as the nation’s aluminum production capacity nears its government-imposed annual limit of 45 million tons. The long-term goal is to establish a high-quality development framework by 2035, ensuring China remains a global aluminum market leader.
Key targets for 2027 include increasing domestic bauxite reserves by 3–5% and boosting recycled aluminum production to over 15 million tons, building a coordinated development system of “primary aluminum + recycled aluminum.” Also, over 30% of primary aluminum capacity should reach benchmark energy efficiency levels and clean energy should account for more than 30% of primary aluminum power use. Finally, there is a target of 15%+ utilization rate of newly generated red mud.
The plan also addresses the ongoing trade tensions, calling for active responses to trade frictions and promotion of high-value exports of advanced aluminum-based new materials and products aiming to enhance foreign trade cooperation. However, the U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are poised to do more than just impact the aluminum market. They could also set off a chain reaction across a broad spectrum of commodities. China has announced its own countermeasures. The U.S. administration asserts that these tariffs are essential to counteract global economic trends that put the U.S. at a disadvantage, particularly the increasing influence of China.
The U.S. has seen a 30% decrease in primary aluminum production from 2020 to 2024, and U.S. smelter capacity utilization was only 52% in 2024, while global primary aluminum capacity has continued to increase, fueled by expansions in China and South America which is seen in rising aluminum imports that continue to weigh on the price domestic aluminum producers may charge. Under the new plan, China clearly wants to cut reliance on bauxite by boosting recycling, aiming for a 15 MT increase in recycled aluminum output.
