Chile’s Copper Production Forecast to Rise 5.6% by 2034, Says Cochilco

Chile’s copper production is projected to increase to 5.54 million metric tons (mt) by 2034, marking a 5.6% rise compared to 2023 levels, according to a report released by the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) on January 15. The forecast underscores Chile’s continued dominance as the world’s largest copper producer.

Cochilco estimates that Chile’s share of global copper production, which stood at 23.6% in 2024, will grow to 27.3% by 2034. The commission projects that the country’s production will peak at 6.07 million mt in 2027, after which annual output is expected to stabilize at slightly lower levels.

However, the 2034 projection represents a downward revision from Cochilco’s earlier forecast of 6.43 million mt. The adjustment reflects technical recalibrations aimed at achieving a more realistic outlook, according to Cochilco analysts.

Sergio Verdugo, a Cochilco analyst, highlighted the challenges posed by aging mines as a key factor in limiting future production growth. Despite these constraints, he noted that in an optimistic scenario, Chile’s copper output in 2034 could reach as high as 7 million mt.

Chile’s leadership in global copper production is expected to remain unchallenged through 2034. Cochilco predicts that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will rank second with a 13.6% market share, followed by Peru at 10.2%.