Global Copper Market to Face Deficit in 2025, Aluminium and Zinc Trends Shift
Following a surplus in 2024, the global copper market is projected to enter a deficit in 2025 due to demand outpacing production growth, according to India Ratings and Research. Prior to 2024, the copper market experienced a five-year deficit.
Shradha Saraogi, associate director at India Ratings and Research, highlighted that rising demand for copper and aluminium will be fueled by the accelerated transition to green energy.
India is expected to remain a net importer of copper in 2025, though the trade gap is likely to narrow as domestic production rises at a faster pace than consumption. In the first eight months of FY25, India’s copper production grew by 11% year-on-year, while imports declined by 22%.
The copper concentrate market is anticipated to remain tight in 2025, mainly due to declining productivity from aging mines.
Meanwhile, the global aluminium market is expected to remain in deficit this year, with production growth primarily driven by China, which accounts for more than half of global aluminium output. China's production reached 43.3 million tonnes in 2024, close to its 45-million-tonne capacity cap.
The rate of aluminium consumption is increasing, driven by sustainability-focused industries such as packaging, transportation, construction, and the proliferation of electric vehicles. India, in contrast to copper, is a net exporter of aluminium.
For zinc, the global supply deficit is expected to narrow as production growth outpaces consumption. In FY25, supply disruptions impacted production, contributing to a 62,000-tonne market deficit in 2024. However, domestic demand for zinc is projected to remain strong, bolstered by government infrastructure investments and the Indian Railways' increased use of galvanized rail lines.
India Ratings has maintained a neutral outlook on base metals pricing. While short-term volatility is expected due to newly announced U.S. tariffs on metal imports, these measures are expected to result in a supply chain reorientation rather than a prolonged impact on prices.
