China’s Aluminum Production Rises Year-on-Year but Declines Monthly

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in February 2025 increased by 0.4% year-on-year but fell by 95,000 tonnes compared to January. The monthly decline was attributed to lower casting ingot output during the Chinese New Year holiday, while the overall operating capacity increased due to production resumptions and new replacement projects following an improvement in aluminum profits.

During February, the proportion of liquid aluminum in the industry rose by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month and 6.7 percentage points year-on-year to 71.0%, driven by stable downstream purchases after the holiday. As a result, domestic aluminum casting ingot production dropped 18.4% year-on-year to approximately 969,000 tonnes.

As of the end of February, China's total aluminum capacity stood at approximately 45.81 million tonnes, with an operating capacity of around 43.64 million tonnes. The industry's operating rate increased by 0.07 percentage points month-on-month and 2.26 percentage points year-on-year to 95.3%. The recovery of aluminum profits in February allowed several curtailed enterprises in Sichuan and Guangxi to resume production. Additionally, a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Qinghai contributed to the growth in operating capacity.

China’s aluminum operating capacity is expected to increase further in March as more enterprises reach full production, with annualized operating capacity projected to stabilize at 43.84 million tonnes per year by the end of the month. The “Golden March and Silver April” period is expected to boost downstream operating rates, with a new photovoltaic policy potentially driving additional aluminum demand. The proportion of liquid aluminum is projected to increase to around 74% in March, while further monitoring is required for capacity resumptions and the performance of downstream sectors such as aluminum billets.